Edicts

As I have been closely following the US midterm election, a website Election Projection caught my attention. This website aggregates different projections and polls to come up with an overall projection, which in the past proved to be rather accurate. (Here i have to point out that he is a firm republican, although this does not seem to affect his projections)

The webmaster of "Election Projection" declares edicts, in which he states his own projection and stick by them all the way till Election Day. I found this very interesting and decided to call edicts myself, concerning Lebanon politics.

Finally if I am proved wrong then I will owe you an apology and will publicly retract my edicts…

Edict One: The current balance of power in the Lebanese Government, headed By PM Siniora (where the 14th of March coalition holds a two third majority) will not change in favor of Hezbollah or Aoun, until the current President Emil Lahoud is replaced.

Hot air

For the past month or so, Hezbollah and its allies have been raging a relentless campaign to change the current government, in which the 14th of March alliance holds a two third majority. (The Lebanese constitution stats that a two third majority in the government is needed to pass the most critical laws such as war and peace, changing the constitution…)

Frankly, the Lebanese political life is beset with deep hypocrisy (check my previous article) and this case offers a prime example. If HA is not satisfied with the current government (in which he and his allies has 5 ministers out of 30) why don’t there ministers resign, forcing the majority’s hands to change the form and the balance of the government.

Moreover, Aoun (who consider himself on HA side) has also called for a change in the government and for holding early parliamentary elections. So here also if they are not satisfied in how the parliament represents the Lebanese political life, why don’t they resign from the parliament (Aoun has 21 members of parliament out 128) forcing partial elections that will certainly show how strong is their popular base of support.

But in reality HA and its allies are only blowing hot air, further acerbating the tensions and undermine trust in the government and its rebuilding efforts. So for the sake of Lebanon, and all these people who lost their homes/loved ones/livelihood stop the destructive rhetoric and resign if you are so dissatisfied with the current government and parliament.

Lebanese political rhetoric

With each day the political rhetoric in Lebanon reach new heights of stupidity, absurdity and narcissism... I am here talking about ALL the Lebanese politicians, their statements are only old regurgitated speeches that can be summarized in a sentence: “they started it, they are wrong, we are right!”

Is anybody giving an alternative, offering a new plan of action? No, on one side a fierce power grabbing campaign is waged and on the other side a fiercer defensive action is taken.

What is funny among all these statements and counter statements, and the respective demonstrations and counter demonstrations, are the PR campaigns waged before each to convince the populace that these upcoming statements will be earth shattering, mind boggling and future changing announcements. And each time we get the same awful bland speeches…

But the sad fact about all this mess is that each leader’s loyal followers are totally convinced by these divine revelations and regurgitate the same arguments and statements in their daily conversation and discussions.

"Peace Now" published

One of the articles I wrote during the war is going to be published in a three parts anthology entitled “Lebanon who won, who lost, who suffered” by Michael J. Totten. The author included many of own dispatches from the Lebanese-Israeli border and a digest of responses to the war from Israeli and Lebanese Bloggers.

My article “Peace Now” will appear in the first part of the anthology “The Hezbollah War”.

To order or review the anthology on Amazon, please click on the icon on the right side of my blog.

The Chicken and the Egg

If one indulges in a surface overview of the current chaotic Lebanese political arena, he might conclude that there is two different factions locked in a fierce debate regarding a problem similar to the one called by some The Chicken and the Egg

Let me elaborate, the first party called by some 14th of March, anti-Syrian, pro American or even the pro Zionist party, believes that in order to establish a strong state in Lebanon Hezbollah must surrender its arms and devote itself exclusively to political activities.

While the second party, called the 8th of March, pro Syrian or the pro Iranian party, believes that Hezbollah must not surrender its weapons until a strong state is built, and Hezbollah must continue its military activities and its “defense” of Lebanon.

Unfortunately, I believe that this is only a masquerade. Lebanon is currently witnessing one of its recurrent “upheavals”, where the current power sharing balance is toppled and a new one is formed. And at the core of this struggle lies two divergent views of a crucial issue, Israel.
The first party believes that at the end of the line, Lebanon must live in peace with its southern neighbor, while the second believes that Lebanon should be forever at war with Israel until it is destroyed…

Mother nature's fury!

20000 missiles!

Yep that is the new official number of missiles Hezbollah has according to Nassrallah… Strange! But I will take this number at face value and try to apply some logic to it. Although I know very well that logic and Lebanese politics are two eternally opposite concepts...

The magic number was about 12000 missiles a couple of months before the war. Speculation and rumors put it at around 15000 on the first days of war, so I will use the 14000 number, as a compromise…

Now according to most sources around 4000 missiles were hurled against Israel throughout the 33 days of war. Assuming that the Israeli army and air forces destroyed only 15% of Hezbollah total missiles (although many sources speak of 30% and even 40%) So his total after the war should be around 8000-9000 tops.

It took Hezbollah six years at least (from 2000 to 2006) while the border with Syria, at that time was wide open, and airplanes and boats loaded with missiles could easily empty their cargo in any Lebanese port, and the missiles arrived to Hezbollah unhindered. Since the war all that changed. The airport and ports are more tightly controlled than ever, while the land border with Syria is still permeable but it is much less so than before the war.

Considering all that Nassrallah is trying to convince us that he managed to get an extra 12000 to add to his previous 8000 to arrive to the latest magic number of 20000. So once more I must stop and say “excuse me Mr. Nassrahaal but something ain’t right!”