Tuesday, June 09, 2009

71 vs 57!

It is a clear victory! 
The 14 march coalition got 71 MP out of 128!
Aoun popularity suffered a huge drop. I am waiting for the official detailed numbers to calculate the exact number.
Meanwhile, the main armenian party (the tachnag) have failed to deliver the much taunted surprise. And their snobbish refusal to the Future Movement alliance proposal (Saad Hariri agreed to give them 4 MP) has dramatically affected their power base and influence, as they only got two MPs out of six Armenians MP in the parliament. 
Now it is time to put the elections behind us and start working to earn the trust that was bestowed to our coalition by the majority of the Lebanese people.
I am eagerly waiting for Aoun speech tomorrow... 
More to come on detailed results in the next week...
for general results check the official website of the Ministry of Interior.

Sunday, June 07, 2009

It seems the armenians have failed to deliver!

Although the total participation rate is pretty low all over Lebanon, but there is no armenians surge detected. Only 14% have voted till now in the Metn (their stronghold) in 2005 around 30% voted.

if the Armenians do not deliver on their promise to bring thousands from abroad Aoun will lose the Metn, Beirut 1 and most probably Zahleh.

Let s wait and see, but it is looking good for march 14...

Saturday, June 06, 2009

I am calling it: 68+ for march 14!!!

My predictions: it will all depend on how far Aoun popularity dropped. If the trend that started in 2007 by-elections, in which his popularity dropped by more than 30%. Then I can confidently say that March 14 will win with flying colors.

Now if the drop was closer to 20% then the election will be tied at around 64-64

And if Aoun only loses around 10% then March 14 will lose, with a minimum of 59 candidates from them and the rest for March 8.

Finally, i will offer my own projection: March 14 will win 68+ members of parliament.

Tomorrow keep your eyes open on the Metn, Zaheleh and Beirut 1 districts. But for an earlier projection of the results ( as these districts are larger and the counting of theballots will longer) look for the results of the smaller districts and how did Aoun popularity change. (like Batroun, Koura and Jbeil)

Additionally, participation number both of our supporters and the Armenians supporting Aoun will give early indications during the day... i ll keep you posted

Finally, let us all hope that the election are peaceful and may the best wins!

It is time!

The time has come to go vote. Tomorrow at 7 am the voting center will open, democracy at its finest...

No matter what is your a political affiliation, or lack off tomorrow go vote! Just vote... and unfortunately in Lebanon blank votes are not counted so vote. choose between the lesser of two evils and choose!

Just Vote!

Friday, May 08, 2009

A year ago...

A year ago Hezbollah thugs invaded Beirut, killing, maiming and burning... They occupied the city, terrorized its people and shut down its press...

Yet They failed. A year past, Saad Hariri is still here, and so is Joumblatt and the rest of the Cedar revolution. Moreover, they even denied them their goal: All what it would have taken was for Saad Hariri to call the banners, and hell would have broken loose. The army would have split and the country would have plunged into an never ending civil war (in the days following may 7, most of the senior army officers close to march 14 presented their resignation because the army command failed to defend the people of Beirut. It took Saad Hariri all his clout to change their mind and convince them to return to their post, in order to preserve the army unity.)

A year has past, and the country is poised for another test: the parliamentary election. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has proven once and for all that they are just another militia, and all of Nassrallah promises that he Will never turn his guns against other Lebanese have proven false, and his other promises about his party ultimate goals stooping at defending Lebanon has also been shattered when the Egyptian caught a Hezbollah cells planning terror attack in Egypt...

Monday, May 04, 2009

Here we go again!

With a bit more than a month left before the June 7 parliamentary election in Lebanon, the political arena is feverish...

during the last stretch i will try to restart my blogging, offer some insight and as per my blogging tradition i will offer my own electoral projection. ( for past example check here and here)

Glad to be back and let's really see which way Lebanon will take... moderation, progress, democracy, freedom of speech and development or the other way, a la Syria and Iran.

I will have a counter on the right side of my blog, showing the projected results for each party. On one hand the 14 March coalition (Future Movement, Phalangist, Walid Joumblatt, Lebanese Forces and several other smaller groups), and on the other hand the 8 march coalition (including Hezbollah, Aoun, Speaker Berri's Amal Movement, and a constellation of smaller pro Syrian parties like the SSNP...)

In the next couple of days i will present the two main coalitions in details with links to their main web sites. And additionally, i am starting a parallel blog solely for a detailed projection of the next election.

Sunday, January 04, 2009

The madness must end!

I am sick and tired of this endless circle of bloody violence. I am sick of the self serving, righteous rhetoric that both sides are using. I am sick of so called "resistance" movement and supporters, who care less about the welfare of there people, than about their divine victories, that leaves thousands dead in their wake. The madness must stop, and it will never do unless the moderates, the peace loving people, from both sides raise their voice and act...

Amid all this bloodshed, nothing reeked more of hypocrisy and double talk than Nassrallah. He launched a full blown attack against Egypt and the rest of the moderate Arabs, almost forgetting about Israel.

What is worse is his call for the Egyptian army to revolt and attack Israel and its own government, to help their brother in Gaza. But wonder of all wonders, Nassrallah asked OTHERS to revolt and attack, while he sits in his cozy little bunker hoarding his 40000 missiles, watching his allies in Gaza being blown to pieces, accusing Egypt and the rest of the Arabs of inaction!!! What a perfect text book example of hypocrisy and what an ally!!!

So Hezbollah needs to act and show us how much you care about the welfare of the Palestinian, before going berserk against the rest of the Arab. But maybe their weapons will only be used against fellow Lebanese, like they did on the 7th of May, but maybe they are waiting for their orders from Iran?

In the end, no one cares about the civilians in Gaza, neither Israel or even less Hamas and Hezbollah. Once more the Palestinians are paying the price of the struggles of regional and world powers on their land.