Wednesday, October 04, 2006

20000 missiles!

Yep that is the new official number of missiles Hezbollah has according to Nassrallah… Strange! But I will take this number at face value and try to apply some logic to it. Although I know very well that logic and Lebanese politics are two eternally opposite concepts...

The magic number was about 12000 missiles a couple of months before the war. Speculation and rumors put it at around 15000 on the first days of war, so I will use the 14000 number, as a compromise…

Now according to most sources around 4000 missiles were hurled against Israel throughout the 33 days of war. Assuming that the Israeli army and air forces destroyed only 15% of Hezbollah total missiles (although many sources speak of 30% and even 40%) So his total after the war should be around 8000-9000 tops.

It took Hezbollah six years at least (from 2000 to 2006) while the border with Syria, at that time was wide open, and airplanes and boats loaded with missiles could easily empty their cargo in any Lebanese port, and the missiles arrived to Hezbollah unhindered. Since the war all that changed. The airport and ports are more tightly controlled than ever, while the land border with Syria is still permeable but it is much less so than before the war.

Considering all that Nassrallah is trying to convince us that he managed to get an extra 12000 to add to his previous 8000 to arrive to the latest magic number of 20000. So once more I must stop and say “excuse me Mr. Nassrahaal but something ain’t right!

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