Tuesday, June 09, 2009

71 vs 57!

It is a clear victory! 
The 14 march coalition got 71 MP out of 128!
Aoun popularity suffered a huge drop. I am waiting for the official detailed numbers to calculate the exact number.
Meanwhile, the main armenian party (the tachnag) have failed to deliver the much taunted surprise. And their snobbish refusal to the Future Movement alliance proposal (Saad Hariri agreed to give them 4 MP) has dramatically affected their power base and influence, as they only got two MPs out of six Armenians MP in the parliament. 
Now it is time to put the elections behind us and start working to earn the trust that was bestowed to our coalition by the majority of the Lebanese people.
I am eagerly waiting for Aoun speech tomorrow... 
More to come on detailed results in the next week...
for general results check the official website of the Ministry of Interior.

Sunday, June 07, 2009

It seems the armenians have failed to deliver!

Although the total participation rate is pretty low all over Lebanon, but there is no armenians surge detected. Only 14% have voted till now in the Metn (their stronghold) in 2005 around 30% voted.

if the Armenians do not deliver on their promise to bring thousands from abroad Aoun will lose the Metn, Beirut 1 and most probably Zahleh.

Let s wait and see, but it is looking good for march 14...

Saturday, June 06, 2009

I am calling it: 68+ for march 14!!!

My predictions: it will all depend on how far Aoun popularity dropped. If the trend that started in 2007 by-elections, in which his popularity dropped by more than 30%. Then I can confidently say that March 14 will win with flying colors.

Now if the drop was closer to 20% then the election will be tied at around 64-64

And if Aoun only loses around 10% then March 14 will lose, with a minimum of 59 candidates from them and the rest for March 8.

Finally, i will offer my own projection: March 14 will win 68+ members of parliament.

Tomorrow keep your eyes open on the Metn, Zaheleh and Beirut 1 districts. But for an earlier projection of the results ( as these districts are larger and the counting of theballots will longer) look for the results of the smaller districts and how did Aoun popularity change. (like Batroun, Koura and Jbeil)

Additionally, participation number both of our supporters and the Armenians supporting Aoun will give early indications during the day... i ll keep you posted

Finally, let us all hope that the election are peaceful and may the best wins!

It is time!

The time has come to go vote. Tomorrow at 7 am the voting center will open, democracy at its finest...

No matter what is your a political affiliation, or lack off tomorrow go vote! Just vote... and unfortunately in Lebanon blank votes are not counted so vote. choose between the lesser of two evils and choose!

Just Vote!