Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Why I accuse Syria…
I accuse of Syria of killing Pierre Gemayeil, because in all accounts it gains the most from this heinous crime. First and foremost, the young Minster is one of the 14th of March coalition (in addition to Saad Hariri, Walid Joumblatt and Samir Geagea and several smaller groups) and he is both a minster and a member of parliament of the slowly dwindling majority.
Second his death further exasperate the relations between the 14th of March forces and the pro-Syrians ones (headed by Hezbollah and Amal, who are also supported by Aoun) and make it harder to find any chance of making a deal or a compromise between the two camps, pushing them for even more clashes, tensions that might culminate into a full fledged civil war.
What will Syria gain form a renewed civil war? First a civil war will forever bury the international tribunal in the assassination of PM Rafik Hariri and the rest of the assassinated leaders. Once there is no longer a legitimate council of ministers then the UN will be unable to continue establishing this tribunal…
Further on if Lebanon plunges into civil war, with the US deeply occupied in Iraq the international community will have no choice but to ask Syria to come back in and reigns the violence, especially if it gets nasty, with many civilians casualties, that could involves European and US citizens and their abduction. It happened once in in the 80’s and it might just happen again…
So it is clear that Syria gained on all accounts, taking advantage of the recent lessening of the international community pressures on its regime, to once more liquidate a Lebanese leader from March the 14th.
What will happen next I have no idea, all what I know is that tomorrow, in Freedom Square in Down Town Beirut,I will, like thousands and thousands of my fellow citizens, express my anger, my refusal of violence in all its aspects and my support of the international tribunal that will once and for all stop all these killings and punish the perpetrators.
PS: I promise to publish a detailed account and some picture of tomorrow’s demonstration.
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8 comments :
Let me propose a contrarian view to the obvious conclusion that the assassination of Pierre Gemayel was the work of Syria: might it have been a false flag operation by Israel / US Neocons (who are basically allied groups, two heads of the same coin)? Facts possibly pointing away from Syria: (a) their political power in the region on the upswing with Baker Group (i.e., Bush the elder's men) reaching out to Syria and Iran to help facilitate a US tactical retreat out of Iraq, (b) they are already under international investigation for Rafik Hariri murder and the Gemayel murder only hightens international pressure on Syria, (c) this murder was different style than others (bullets v. bombing). What do Israel / Neocons gain from Gemayel murder? Lots. Cause political instability in Lebanon which furthers their agenda in the country. They do not want a unified, strong central government on their northern boarder. Helps in their goal of isolating Syria as an alleged rogue state. Helps in thwarting international desire to involve Syria in solution in Iraq.
your conclusion is worng because Israel is the last country to benefit from a civil war inl ebanon now.
If a civil war starts chaos will spread in lebanon and reach iSrael norhtern border and at the moment this is the last thing israel wants.
Isreal is very intrested in a stable Lebanon, especially that in the current situation (with close to 10000 UN peacekeepers stopping any attack against Isreal) a stable lebanon is of paramount importance to isreal.
Well Bob, i don't know what to say i mean your conclusion is so naïve. Well you said that Israel is the last country to benifit from a civil war un lebanon now. Honestly,you missed the point.As a matter of fact we all know that Syria is under international pressure especially after being accused of the political assasinations, so i don't know what would it be gaining if lebanon plunges in a civil war? more pressure, diplomatic isolation...Do you think that this country is stupid enough to assume these consequences. Well i don't.
Secondly, let us be clear i think we all have heard about the Greater Middle East,( the plan publically announced by the US administartion in february 2004, developed by the Neocons of course,and to be precise, formulated by shemon perez in 1992) has been launched in the Middle East under the famous sentence " to promote peace and democracy in the middle-east" so that's why there's war in Irak, and maybe that's why a war in lebanon would be very fruitful for democracy. Moreover an intervention in Iran would be much more adequate. Well just to be clear, a war in lebanon will bind Syria to settle peace with Israel( knowing that it'll be the only indicted)so eventually,a peace settlement means, the liquidation of the Islamic Jihad and the Hamas in Damascus, which mens also, neutralizing relations with Iran and certainly as well as logic stopping the support for Hezbollah, what a coïncidence huh? Therefore, Syria will be the first Arab state of the american and israel list to have recognized the State of Israel, and this would be the match point for zionnisme.
>>Israel is the last country to benefit from a civil war inl ebanon now.<< And I suppose Israel's desire for stability in Lebanon is the reason the Israelis very recently bombed the country nearly back into the stone age crippling the airport, roads, power plants, and all major aspects of infrastructure. You seem to think Israel (I'm speaking of Zionist faction that controls the country) dislikes the rise of Hezbolla. The rise of an enemy is always a good thing for party set on continual war. The war faction in the USA stuggled mightily after the fall of the Soviet Union to find another enemy to go war with. Thust he invention of the neverending war on terror ... whatever that is.
Accusing the 14ht of March of killing one of its own is ridiculous and insulting.
First and foremost according to your twisted logic Shekh Pierre’s death was supposed to greatly benefit the 14th of March, while in fact it only postponed the Hezbollah’s demonstration nd no solution or compromise has been reached, so I do not think any one is that stupid to kill such a leader to gain a couple of days.
Rabie
Now considering what Syria gains, look at it from this side, Syria never cared and never will for how the Lebanese regard it or feel towards it. Its policy in Lebanon has always been one of divide and conquer and killing anyone who stands in its path.
And here any destabilization in Lebanon directly benefit Syria on two front as I said: the international tribunal (which you did not even mention) and second it will exert more influence if civil war breaks out. Even if the Lebanese are against Syria’s come back they will not be able to do anything jut like in 1975 and in 1992 when it occupied the Christian zones even though they were totally against it and it just exiled one of their leaders (aoun) and imprisoned another (Geagea)
Last but not least
I repeat, Israel at the moment is not interested in destabilizing Lebanon, because this will lead to the immediate withdrawal of all the UNIFIL forces and a return of Hezbollah’s attack on Israel. You spoke about the war and in that instance Israel was only interested in destroying Hezbollah disregarding any cost or destabilization of Lebanon. That proved to be a very big a costly mistake…
Peace
Rabie
You contradict yourself, first you say "guess what the international tribune is on the way anyway." and then "they have been able to push forward the calls for the international tribunal"
So please be more consistent...
Now about your ridiculous accusation, your conclusion are all wrong the 14th of march are not in a better situation, according to your friends Al Manar TV (Hezbollah tv) the crowds were not that important (i beg to differ...) and soon HA will be back in the streets, so according to your twist logic the only thing accomplished was a 5 days postponement of HA demonstration. To me that is the stupidest reason to kill one of our allies, and to further endanger our hold on the government (just two more ministers) and the parliament (just six more members).
Concerning Geagea prediction well anyone with a minimum of political knowledge knew that the only Syrina way to stop the international tribunal was to kill two more minsters ( Joumblatt said it and the minister of interior also, so they were all plotting to kill one of their own (a very poor conspiracy for a killer to publicly speak about his foreknowledge and also a stupid and insulting accusation) or they knew perfectly well how blood thirsty and criminal the Syrian regime is…
Now i really liked one thing you said you spoke about Assad groveling to Israel in order to get a peace deal as if it was a good thing, ("is closer than any other country in the region to having talks with Israel") so why are you so against PM Siniora, aren't you guys been always accusing him of being part of the American-Israeli axis?
so if you like Syria getting a peace deal with Israel then you should also like all of march the 14th that you have been calling day and night Israeli collaborators. or Syria is the only one allowed to have a peace while Lebanon must forever live in war...
yep that is exactly it...
I am the one believing in conspiracies...
And i like your proving two contradictory points argument!!!
Anyways i feel that this discussion is useless but still i will state my arguments one last time....
i couldn't get what you were saying, but u seem to think that i was arguing about numbers. I said that if you believe that the numbers were not important ( and you do as you said that HA numbers are 20 time s as bigger, I am laughing so hard now that it hurts!!!!)
So if the numbers were not big and HA are still going on with their protest just tells me why would geagea kill Gemayel ( if that what you are pointing to, and which I find totally absurd and insulting) ???
why not Israel? its very possible
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