I accuse of Syria of killing Pierre Gemayeil, because in all accounts it gains the most from this heinous crime. First and foremost, the young Minster is one of the 14th of March coalition (in addition to Saad Hariri, Walid Joumblatt and Samir Geagea and several smaller groups) and he is both a minster and a member of parliament of the slowly dwindling majority.
Second his death further exasperate the relations between the 14th of March forces and the pro-Syrians ones (headed by Hezbollah and Amal, who are also supported by Aoun) and make it harder to find any chance of making a deal or a compromise between the two camps, pushing them for even more clashes, tensions that might culminate into a full fledged civil war.
What will Syria gain form a renewed civil war? First a civil war will forever bury the international tribunal in the assassination of PM Rafik Hariri and the rest of the assassinated leaders. Once there is no longer a legitimate council of ministers then the UN will be unable to continue establishing this tribunal…
Further on if Lebanon plunges into civil war, with the US deeply occupied in Iraq the international community will have no choice but to ask Syria to come back in and reigns the violence, especially if it gets nasty, with many civilians casualties, that could involves European and US citizens and their abduction. It happened once in in the 80’s and it might just happen again…
So it is clear that Syria gained on all accounts, taking advantage of the recent lessening of the international community pressures on its regime, to once more liquidate a Lebanese leader from March the 14th.
What will happen next I have no idea, all what I know is that tomorrow, in Freedom Square in Down Town Beirut,I will, like thousands and thousands of my fellow citizens, express my anger, my refusal of violence in all its aspects and my support of the international tribunal that will once and for all stop all these killings and punish the perpetrators.
PS: I promise to publish a detailed account and some picture of tomorrow’s demonstration.
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Posted by BOB at 11/22/2006