War game!

Now that is what I call a nice little simulation! Yesterday night Hezbollah goons staged a multiple hit and run maneuvers around Beirut, closing on the main road between Down Town and the Airport and closing it down by burning tires and clashing with the army and security forces, then rapidly moving away on scooters to different areas and closing down main roads, burning trash cans with molotov cocktails.

The army response was swift and efficient, and the road was reopened rapidly. However on a fast scale and over an extended period these tactics could prove difficult to counter.

So awaiting the full fledge uprising that Mr. Nassrallah is preparing, I think yesterday was a foretaste of the dark future Hezbollah is preparing for Lebanon.

Meanwhile, Nassrallah is busy collecting and archiving the hands and heads and pieces of flesh of Israeli soldiers, eagerly awaiting for the next batch of Lebanese remains that will be laid at his feet’s when Hezbollah launch their promised uprising…

Adaptation!

You can't live in Lebanon for an extended period of time without being rapidly able to adapt to any situation, no matter how odd and out of norm it is. And the Lebanese have perfected this trait to a point when even the oddest situation becomes part of our daily routine in a matter of days.

Take for example the quasi military occupation of a big part of Beirut's down town, alternate route have been found, most restaurants have moved elsewhere, mostly to Hamra and verdun (two prominent neighborhood in west Beirut) the rest have simply gone bankrupt. For in Lebanon you either adapt or you die, figuratively speaking or even literary.

Since the long series of assassination started in late 2004, it has been common knowldge, to all Lebanese that VIP convoys are to be avoided at all costs. At any hint of a speeding convoy you will see that most civilian car park on the sides of the road or take evasive action, as you never know when a such a convoy will be targeted by a road side bomb. lately, UN convoy have been added to that list of "dangerous!! run for your life!"

Unfortunalty, this list keep growing. Yesterday a further category have been added : diplomatic vehicles and convoys (i am referring to the attempt attack against a US diplomatic vehicle).

Well we will adapt and learn, there no other way. And here i think a quote from of of my favorite fanasty series "the wheel of time" will best express the lebanese people state of mind: "god willing we will prevail , and if god wills it not, we will still prevail!"

More Hezbollah threats...

Mr. Nassrallah is back to issuing his empty threats, warning that if 14 March do not accept all the opposition’s demands they will... “ACT”

Frankly, I am sick and tired of Hezbollah’s threats. I considers that 14 March have given more than its share of concessions. Let me refresh your memory: although March 14 have an absolute majority in the parliament but it agreed on a consensual president. They even accepted the army chief, General Suleiman’s, who was considered closer to the opposition than to March 14. And finally they even agreed to give up the absolute majority in the council of Ministers ( out of a total of 30 ministers: giving 7seven to the president, 10 to the opposition and only 14 to the parliamentary majority)

But no, Nassrallah wants more, and if he doesn’t get it he is threatening the Lebanese with civil unrest and other “divine” surprises. Yet five minutes later in his interview he claims that the opposition interests are only for Lebanon and its welfare!!!

I am simply fed up, and to paraphrase Joumblatt’s stament to Nassrallah: You want a blocking third in the government than you will have to take it by force! Over our dead bodies!

A power struggle!

At the current state of affairs the two main Lebanese coalitions are, not surprisingly, at opposite ends of another issue. The 14 of March parties are advocating electing General Suleiman as President immediately without any conditions or pre-agreement. Meanwhile, the opposition wants to agree on each and every political issue that divide the two coalitions.

The opposition argument is based on the their fear that the next President will suffer a similar fate to the infamous Emil Lahoud, who was practically shunned and isolated by the whole world and did not have a say on policy making. the argument sounds valid, however the timing is quite suspicious!

So why is Hezbollah forcefully postponing the presidential election, insisting on a political agreement with guaranties on all issue, and especially on the formation of the next government, even though once Suleiman will be elected he will still have a lot of influence on the formation of the new government as he co-signs the decree to from it. So if he is not happy with the proposed division of the number of ministers between the two coalitions, or the distribution of ministries, he can simply refuse to sign and all parties will have to keep on negotiating to reach a better deal.

The answer to that question has several facets: first Hezballah and Aoun do not completely trust General Suleiman, no matter what they claim. Second, Aoun cannot afford to lose his bid on the presidency, not for six years and especially not to a powerful and popular figure like the army chief, who would certainly threaten Aoun's own popular power base.

Third, at the moment the negotiations are between the 14 March and the 8th of March coalition, which hold the necessary MPs to enable a two third quorum in the parliament. But once Suleiman is elected the initiative will move from their hands to the hands of the president and he will be the one working on a deal with the 14 of March controlled parliamentary majority.

In the end it is all just a power struggle. This was the case since the Syrian army withdrew from Lebanon and this is still the case. It is a power struggle between two coalition, one advocating democracy and liberalism; the other, well judging by its allies Syria and Iran, i will leave it to you to figure out what they are advocating...

Happy holidays!

Well allow me to send my holidays greetings and best wishes of peace and prosperity to all of you, let us hope that the new year will be better on all of us and especially on Lebanon.

I apologize for my sparse posting but as you know the Lebanese political scene is becoming unbearable these days. There is no progress whatsoever, each concession by the 14 March coalition is met by more stringent demands and conditions by Hezbollah and its allies.

as usual today's parliamentary session was, once more, postponed to Saturday. Somehow i have stopped believing that Lebanon will ever elect a president. I hope i am wrong...

With that i leave you to enjoy your holidays and happy Adha, Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

Rumors of a deal, again...

As usual whenever a possible US-Syrian rapprochement looms over the horizon, Hezbullah mouthpieces start clamoring that a deal, between the two, is in the making and it will be on the expense of Lebanon.

Unfortunately, these conspiracy theorists are first of all biased, trying to project their twisted wishes on reality. For in the post September 11 world it is against the interests of the US to strike any deal that will strengthen Syria's (or any other Middle Eastern country) regional clout and influence. The days of sub contracting regional stability to a few power hubs are long gone.

Second, Lebanon is the US last beacon of democracy in the Middle East, allowing the Syrians to spread their control, once more, on the tiny country will be too high a price even for separating Syria from Iran. No the deal, if any, will be a lessening of Syria's isolation, increasing aid and investment in its economy, and a reinvigorated peace process that will return the Golan heights to Syria.

However, I believe that Syria will not break its alliance with Iran. Bashar is too weak and the Iranian have too much at stakes and invested in the Allawites regime to let him slip out of their hands.

Third, there are too many UNSC resolutions and vested interests in the current Lebanese democratic coalition to simply let it be, once more, overwhelmed by Syria or its allies' despotic and oppressive regime.

Finally, we are passing through a waiting period, where all parties, national and regional, are waiting for further developments before committing to a defined policy or alliance. And the 14 of March initiative to propsoe General Suleiman as a presidential candidate was extremely smart, as he is a candidate that the opposition cannot refuse. The initiative cornered Bashar Assad, as the Syrians and their allies were hoping for an extended void and all the clashes that it will engender, to increase their bargaining chips in the upcoming months. This move robbed them of a very important card and will allow the Lebanese to inch forward to strong and stable political system.