Now to the numbers, but before that a brief sum up of the situation: Tensions are sky high in the Metn area. I fear that the elections will be wrought with violence and increased divisions between the two main factions (especially on the Christian side)
Meanwhile the army had to reinforce its deployment in the Metn and Beirut to enforce order, so between the North and South deployment and the border patrols with Syria the army is spread very, very thin.
The numbers: I collected these numbers from several sources, and are mostly based on the 2005 election and my own analysis. One of my main sources is Abdo Saad, a political analyst specialized in electoral statistics, but who heavily leans toward Aoun and his allies, and writes in the Al-Akhbar newspaper, which is backed by Hezblollah,. (Check out his articles on the elections here and here).
The main forces:
Kateb (the Phanlages) and their allies (14 March, LF…); Aoun and his supporters ( Baath party and SSNP both syria’s allies. I never thought I would ever say that Aoun is the ally of these two parties that have specialized in following Syria’s orders and killing Lebanese …); The Tachnak ( an Armenian party); and Michel Murr
The numbers:
31000 for the Kateb and their allies
30000 for Aoun and his allies
7000 Tachnak
14000 for Murr
Most analysts agree that Aoun lost some of his support among Christians, putting a number to that loss is pretty difficult. But I feel that one can project a loss of 10% to 20%, and that is for his whole bloc, which includes his core base of support plus many independent and 14 March leaner who choose Aoun, in the last election, as a response for Joumblatt’s alliance with Hezbollah in 2005.Therefore, I will go for a 15% drop in Aoun’s support. And I will add 15% to the 14 March coalitions, especially that the former President Amine Gemayel has more notoriety and support, compared to his son in 2005.
The Armenians are calling to support Aoun, and their mobilization is traditionally high. Even though there are no Armenian candidates running for the seat, and there are many talks of internal disagreement in the Tachnak party, I will consider their support undiminished.
Finally, the Murr bloc. Michel Murr has reluctantly supported Aoun for the upcoming election, and an estimated one fifth (some claim is goes as high as 1/3) of his bloc leans for the Kateb or are indeed ex-Kateb or ex-LF (Geagea supporters) so I will go for a 20% (1/5) drop in his popularity.
Here I must take in account the long alliance shared between Murr and the Kateab that goes back to the 70’s and Murr reluctance in supporting Aoun, especially that he was the one who convinced General Aoun to leave a seat for the son of Amine Gemayel, who assassination a few months ago resulted in this partial election. Therefore, I reckon that he will not fully mobilize his voters and may, and I stress MAY, indirectly support Amine Gemayel. But I will leave these speculations out of my number crunching.
So the final numbers become like this:
35650 +2800(from Murr) for the Kateb and their allies
25500 for Aoun and his allies
7000 Tachnak
11200 for Murr
Total for Amin Gemayel: 38400
Total for Aoun: 43500
The difference is 4900, out of 83500 voters, which translate into a mere 5% difference. In comparison, in 2005 the difference was 28000 or 34%.
So in conclusion, the election will be very, very close. And any further drop of Aoun support or lack of mobilization in Aoun Armenian support, or if (and this is the most probable outcome) Murr chooses to stand by the sideline or refuse to muster all his support, will result in a victory for Amine Gemayel.
7 comments :
go Gemmayel go!
I share your feelings anonymous!!!!!
:)
Sam
you were barred from this blog for personal insults and attacks and making fun of assasinated MP Eido. untill i hear an apology your comments will be deleted.
The numbers game is very popular in Lebanon. I think under 50% voted in the 2005 Metn election - what about that 50% that did not vote? What will they do? It's doubtful you can call any of them "neutral", how can anyone be "neutral" about what has happened the last 2 years? They will be the deciding factor. Aoun has a very good political machine and he has 3 TV stations and many newspapers (as you noted) behind him. Will the M14 and Gemayel reach out to these people who did not vote in 2005? They will probably decide the election.
I'm betting there are a lot of people who have just been waiting to say what they think of the political situation in Lebanon over the past 2 years and especially the last 7 months. This is their big chance. I hope they don't throw it away.
Dear Bob,
I am disappointed by the way you were leading your analysis. Globally, I agree with you in lots of points. Of course, being an FPMer, I think we will have more votes.
But putting "Aoun and allies = FPM+SSNP" is not fair.
You know very well that "Aoun and allies = FPM + Tashnag + Murr"
FPM received the support of SSNP, that's right but never asked for. Actually, it's a disadvantage knowing that SSNP has no support anymore in Lebanon and that it will affect badly the image of FPM to be associated to SSNP. The way you are leading the discussion (by systematically insinuating that FPM is pro-syrian) shows that you have understand it and you are trying to manipulate the feelings of the people who can read this analysis by associating FPM to Syria.
You (I am talking about the anti-FPM medias, not you specifically) are using this pro-syrian rhetoric since 2 years now and you don't want to understand that people are fed up with such diffamating behavior.
In fact, the propaganda of the Hariri medias is at the top those last days (Futur TV, LBC + Al Moustakbal, An Nahar, L'Orient le Jour, The Daily Star and some other newspapers). You have the medias with you, which is surely not the case of FPM.
Also, Hariri money is distributed all over Metn this week to help Amine Gemayel catch some votes or try to convince some people to not vote for FPM's candidate. I personally know also that tickets are proposed for Lebanese abroad to join the Metn battle at 5 August and vote for Amine Gemayel. All these "manoeuvres" will not be sufficient to beat FPM's candidate, I hope.
On the other side, FPM has no media and no money with him. OTV is the only media which is neutral and giving the talk to every party.
FPMers are paying themselves the costs of the electoral campaign and have no help from any fund. As you see, there are lots of Pictures of Gemayel and Kataeb flags on the roads while FPM don't have the money to make this publicity. FPM is the people and I hope they will show it on sunday.
Dear Anonymous,
First of all welcome to my blog and i hope that you frequently give your opinion, because the moment we no longer listen to each others is the moment our country dies...
Now about including FPM and SSNP i will refer you to what the head of the SSNP (Kanso) said. he explicitly said that SSNP and FPM were on the same alliance and followed the same line.
Unfortunately i did not hear any denial or refutation or even comment by any FPM official, until that happens i am sry but FPM and SSNP are considered allies.
One more thing, FPM play an unfair game, when you accused Hariri of funding Fateh Islam and then he DENIED it, you kept your accusation and even increased them. Now after what General Aoun said to Sham Press about Syria's help to Lebanon and his past and future understanding with, FPM denied it, but why should we act different than you did?
so i will make you a deal if FPM stop accusing -without proofs i might say- hariri of funding Fateh islam we I will stop using this accusation that FPM is allied with Syria.
finally, if you are against Syria what are you doing in an alliance/understanding/ call what you want with Hezbollah, a self confessed syrain ally?
Now about money distributions plz bring evidence or proofs or else these are just rumors. cause you know on the other side there are many rumors too (and i did not post them) such as Iranian money being distributed...
Additionaly, saying that FPM has no media and play the role of a victime, i simply disagree.
According to a acedimic study, published in annahar FPM and Anou have the largest share of air time on New TV. Not to forget Al Manar and NBN
so plz on the TV side you have almost the half of the media behind you. and we all know TV is the most effective media outlet.
Finally, may this election be peaceful and may the nest man win!!
eagrly awaiting your response
Ace
the number of voters cannot rise by more than a few % points. for a simple reason, the majority of the 50% who did not vote are no longer in Lebanon or some of them may even be dead.
Post a Comment