Monday, November 05, 2007

Hezbollah and the concept of deterence!

Something ain't right with Hezbollah's concept of deterrence. Before the 2006 summer war, Narrallah convinced a large part of the Lebanese people that his 20000 thousands missiles are the greatest deterrent to any Israeli attack against Lebanon, and stressed that Israel would never dare to attack our country as long as he had all these missiles.

Unfortunately, the war proved him wrong... not only his missiles failed to protect Lebanon, but they caused untold destruction, as Israel bombed any missile launch site no matter where it was, and used Hezbollah's missiles as a pretext to continue the war for over a month.

Now fast forward to a few weeks ago, Nassrallah tries, once again, to threaten Israel and us with a big surprise he is preparing for any invading army if they dared attack Lebanon. It seems that it failed too. Because yesterday Hezbollah, breaching UN resolution 1701, and forgoing any common sense, embarked on a large military maneuvers in the area south of the Litani river and controlled by the UNIFIL.

His reason? to send a message to Israel -and his friends!!- that Hezbollah will stop any Israel attack against Lebanon, and these maneuvers are the greatest deterrence to Israel, and will stop it from ever thinking of attacking Lebanon. Maybe threating Israel with a big surprise was not deterrent enough!

Funny thing is, during Hezbollah "divine" maneuvers, the Israeli Air force was freely flying overhead and watching, with interest, the maneuvers aimed to stop them form any further incursions or attacks...Ah irony!

Once again, Nassrallah's deterrence will fail, and will certainly have a catastrophic opposite effect. If Israel was hesitant to launch any attack against the party of god, i think this maneuver will strengthen their resolve and encourage them to launch a large scale attack against Hezbollah.

What can i say? Excellent deterrence strategy Mr. Nassrallah! Keep up the good work, especially that the last destroyed bridges from the summer war have been finally repaired. Just in time!
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