As events are racing towards a clash ( Lebanon presidential election due by 24 November, Iran nuclear activities, Israel flexing its muscles, Syria playing around…) I cannot help but to offer the likeliest scenarios concerning the fate of Lebanon’s election.
The most likely scenario is a presidential election with an absolute majority quorum, by the 14 March coalition. The opposition, claiming that the quorum should be the two third of all MPs, threatened revolution and coup d’état if the 14 March government try to go through such a presidential election.
The second scenario, a bit less likely, would be a void, the president will not be elected and Prime Minster Siniora’s government will take charge of presidential powers.
The third scenario would be a miracle, a consensual president, and frankly I do not see this happening.
Now let us hear what you have to say and which scenario you think will happen.