In the first article I will offer a brief overview of the situation and possible consequence of the electoral battle of the Metn. In the second part I will draw out an in-depth analysis of electoral forces and their orientations in the same district, and then moving on to a similar exercise of the election in Beirut’s second district in the third article.
The electoral race in the Metn will be a titanic struggle between former President Amin Gemayel, the father of the assassinated MP pierre Gemayel, who previously held the seat, and General Aoun, represented by Dr. Kamil Khoury.
This partial election will be an important milestone in the current political crisis in Lebanon. In short, if Aoun’s candidate wins, the General will cement his position as the sole Christian leader in Lebanon and will favorably affect his chance to become the next President, totally annihilating Amin Gemyal and his party’s –the Phalanges-political base and weight.
Meanwhile, if Amin Gemayel wins, this will signal the start of the disintegration of Aoun’s political influence and clout, and the emergence of an alternative Christian leadership, formed by a coalition of the Lebanese Forces (headed by Samir Geagea) the Phalanges (headed by Amin Gemayel and several other Chritian leaderships).
If this happens, it will be considered a victory for the former President or at least a setback for Aoun. Additionally, the FPM (Free Patriotic Movement- Aoun’s party) base will be severely disenchanted (check out the current mood and expectation of the FPM base on their forums)
Continued in Part II
3 comments :
Ghassan asked me to post his comment:
First, please give us the distribution of voters by sect (I am sorry, but these days sect is very important!)
Second, please provide us of last election results. I like to see the distribution of voters (pro-Aoun vs. pro-March 14 vs. others) in addition to by sect.
Third, your article did not address the possibility of Aoun winning by a "smaller" percentage instead of the 70% last election margin. It is important because if Aoun's candidate wins with 51%, it means that Aoun lost from part of his base.
Fourth, you need to inform the readers that there is a good percentage of voters in Al-Matin who are of Armenian origin. Aremenians vote as a block and follow their leaders regardless!
To answer most of your question i will refer you to Part II of my analysis.
About the by sect distribution check out the link i posted they have a list of voters by sect and by candidates.
Nice analysis - it's a mystery to me why Aoun is taking this chance. There is almost no chance he will gain anything from it. He has certainly lost support and there is a chance he may actually lose in Metn. That will signal more than a "disintegration" - it will put an end to his political career since his whole political career today is to become President of Lebanon. His base is shrinking and what's left of it has demanded he run in the elections as you noted, but he could have convinced them that "for the sake of Christian peace" he thought it was best to let Gemayel have the seat. Aoun's arrogance has caused him a major political blunder, and he has been trying ever since to put a stop to the elections through the court and the talks with the Bishops. Yes indeed - it's a pure mystery.
Ace
reading young article ( i posted it on my blog) gives a very interesting explanation of why Aoun entered tis election...
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