Friday, February 02, 2007
Silver lining
It seems that there is hope for a peaceful settlement to Lebanon’s crisis, or so it seems…
After last week brief glimpses of hell, Lebanese politicians got a little scared. Nassrallah announced that this is a political disagreement and could only be solved in political means, a big shift from his previous claims of forcing change through demonstrations, road blocking and paralyzing the country.
Additionally, as I stated in a previous post , it is possible to get an idea of future events in Lebanon by decrypting current events in Palestine. For example when I wrote Parallel fates, the situation in Palestine was enflamed while in Lebanon it was pretty calm, a few weeks later hell almost brook loose in Beirut.
So at the moment the situation in Palestine is mixed, Fateh and Hamas are still fighting each other and the intensity of their confrontations changes by the hours. But the main event was the agreement of both parties to hold “peace” talks in Mekka, in response to King Abdallah’s invitation.
So will we witness a Taef-2 in the short future? (Taef was the post civil war Lebanese peace conference, that effectively ended the war in 1990) While on the other hand a possible big confrontation is looming on the horizon as February 14 approaches.
All in all the good signs outweigh, not by much though, the bad ones. So let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope for the better, because the worse is unimaginable...
Subscribe to:
Post Comments
(
Atom
)
7 comments :
The point was brought up recently
>I'm sure Slavic Mike has other sources...
when it comes to my exposure and understanding of Arab and Middle Eastern cultures and people.
And I think it's a good fit with this topic.
I was born and raised in the San Francisco Bay Area in California which is a major hub for people of all persuasions.
My first friend growing up on my street was an Indian of the Bramman cast(a non-Arab, but allow me to continue), one of my soccer coaches was a Saudi, as was the best player on the team and schoolmate friend, Saheed.
There were people from all over the world who had either immigrated years ago or had recently arrived.
I've known Cambodians (fleeing the Kamir-Rouge regime), had a good friend who came over as a Korean orphan, Chinese, Japanese, Laotian, Philipinos, Indonesias, etc.
There were a few fellow Slavics here and there fleeing the Soviets.
A lot of hispanics, mostly from Mexico, but also from deep south like Brazil, Venezuela, etc.
A lot of Indians and Pakistanis who had come either seeking a better life, fleeing the on again off again wars between the two countries dating back to the "Fall of the Raj", or both.
On onto Middle Easterners, I knew a lot of Saudi's, a few Jordanians, Egyptians, I don't know any if knew any Lebanese personally(since we all grew up around each other, you knew them better by their name and personality as opposed to where they came from).
Speaking of Arabs and Persians living in America, I've often (but not always) found Arab women to be much more assertive than the men, probably trying to offset the balance of male/female power in their native countries perhaps.
Anyways, it's from all these interactions that I base much of my foreign outlook on.
And since having known a life "in colors" that didn't feature road blocks, burning tires, and constant threats to topple the government, I know that the general concept of world peace and different groups sharing the same space is entirely possible and in fact a reality in certain places.
It's probably why Lebanon interests me so much because of the similarities I see between its diversity and that of the multiple cultures I lived amongst during my years in California.
I've had discussions on Palestine, with actual Palestinians (the reason why Sam's arguments on the subject always seem so cliche and predictable).
And the reason why I'm such an "Irano-phile" has to do with a friend growing up whose family smuggled him (at age 2) along with themselves out of Iran late one night to avoid being murdered. They weren't Shah-ist, they had instead committed the crime (punishable by death since the mullahs took over) of converting away from Islam.
He's always had the most striking story out of all the people I've known that have fled persecution and genocide over the years (although Yugoslavians and Cubans often rank a close second).
So here you have these same people that under their native governments were rolled up in a culture of suppression, but in a free democracy like the US they were happy go lucky prooving to me at least that it is simply a matter of the system and people willingness to stand up for their own basic rights.
Africa is a good example of this. In 93-94 South Africa, the last bastion of European colonialism, saw the end of Apartheid meaning "whitey" and all of his abusive ways had finally been ended.
But you fast forward a few years on into the present and China, in search of oil and other natural resources like copper, has assumed the abusive role of its European predecessors by underpaying African workers, threatening the lives of those seeking to form unions, operating mines and factories under deplorable conditions, opening fire on workers when they strike in an overall exploitive relationship.
Now this isn't simply something happening in only Muslim or only Christian dominated areas, it's widespread.
Which really points to the issue of people allowing themselves to be victimized and pushed around.
Ever since the Cedar Revolution, when Lebanon really entered the International scene for something other than war, I've been really impressed in how you guys have bucked that trend of being put upon like so many others in the region.
And that's really the task at hand, I think, for this first part of the 21st century, how to finally normalize things where there's an across the spectrum equality and balance that no longer profides safe haven for mullahs, would be czars, and dictators to take whole populations captive and threaten other countries through both covert and overt acts.
I've been amazed at the effectiveness of blogs throughout the world seeming to do just that.
As for the current peaceful lull in Lebanon following the failed "roadblock campaign", wouldn't it be a great time to start formulating safeguards and widespread measures (if in concept only) between the various groups or even individuals on how to proceed to jump start the move from fighting over which sect gets what to how best to begin implimenting various economic and political reforms?
If you can succeed in evolving the dialogue into a more civil realm focusing on more concrete concepts as far as campaigns for improving tourism, establishing Beirut as say, the capital for film festivals in the region("The Cannes of the Mediteranean") you move the ball that much farther out of the hands of those groups looking to play war games.
Speaking of a ball and games, how about setting out to have a major regional Football Tournament in the next year or so inviting all the best teams from the surrounding countries to an upgraded stadium in Beirut.
Following the devastation of New Orleans from Hurrican Katrina, the rebuilding of the Super Dome and the focus on the successes of the New Orleans Saints (an American Football Team) as they came one game away from the Super Bowl for the first time in their franchises history proved to be a great motivator for the entire city(and the entire country).
>>having known a life "in colors" that didn't feature road blocks
Yes unlike the unicolored (black) racist zionist entity that rejects all others and features a roadblock for every palestinian neighborhood.
>>Which really points to the issue of people allowing themselves to be victimized and pushed around.
Absolutely that is why HA was created in the first place, and I can tell you, we will never allow the terrorist zionist entity to push us around without exacting a very high price at every inch of the way, that is an absolute PROMISE!
Bob,
Silver lining: ELECTORAL LAW.
Without any pre set mind let me just tell you how I see the silver lining objectively without "sentiments" or anything subjective.
To me the silver lining is clear: what the whole thing boils down to is the setting of an electoral law all Lebanese agree on for the next elections (whether they take place now or in a few years), all the rest is just bla bla guessing.
Why?
Case 1: we have a unity government that means we agreed on the conditions of the tribunal and the only remaining item is the electoral law.
Case 2: we don't have a unity government that means the opposition stays in the streets and the current siniora team stays more or less paralysed until it is time for new elections so the item
that remains is... the electoral law. And here we have 2 cases: either we reach an agreement on one and there are new elections with a result everybody agrees on, or the current team chooses an electoral law that fits them to stay in power and there is a revolution (I'm not trying to overstate it or dramatise it with the word revolution, this is exactly the right word with all it entails).
Bottom line,
Silver lining: ELECTORAL LAW.
Sam,
>>having known a life "in colors" that didn't feature road blocks
Yes unlike the unicolored (black) racist zionist entity that rejects all others and features a roadblock for every palestinian neighborhood.
Last time I checked Israel was getting along with Jordan, Egypt, and, dare the stars fall from the sky, Saudi Arabia (of course, this is mostly over combating Iran).
Anyways, the "roadblock bad" argument against Israel in Palestine would work a lot better if it weren't for things like suicide bombings dropping off by 90% following the construction of that wall they built.
Of course, the most militant of Palestinians seem to be getting by just find these days through tunnels, I hear.
I saw footage of one in the works about a year ago when it was used to detonate high explosives and kill 55 people around 8am working in an Israeli police building.
>>Which really points to the issue of people allowing themselves to be victimized and pushed around.
Absolutely that is why HA was created in the first place,
Funny, you guys sure seem to be a carbon copy of every other group out there trying to seize power through violence and intimidation.
The fact that there's a HA in Saudi Arabia, South America, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq (currently being established), and the US (before the Feds busted them in 1999) doesn't really speak well of the originality and sole connection to Lebanon that you're trying to espouse.
Again it sounds more like a franchise filling orders called in from the corporate headquarters in Tehran.
Speaking of which, here's an interesting article about how HA decision to end the standoffs in the streets recently had less to do with Nasrallah's choosing and more to do with his Persian mullah masters:
http://www.salon.com/wire/ap/archive.html?wire=D8N3OLCG0.html
It focuses on talks taking place between the Saudis and Iran which is probably serving as a portal to Iran for the West without formal negotiation.
And overall, it’s HA that’s the same ol’bully on the block. It’s the March 14th supporters who are bucking the trend of being pushed around and bullied by Nasrallah and company.
>>>and I can tell you, we will never allow the terrorist zionist entity to push us around without exacting a very high price at every inch of the way, that is an absolute PROMISE!
More bold words from France as you again go blurring the line between you "supporting" HA and actually being a member.
But even more intriguing, you mention how the Israeli's are pushing you around (an impressive feet given your location in France) while this news blip surfaced regarding HA recently setting four bombs on the Israeli side of the Lebanon/Israeli border saying further:
"If confirmed, it would mark a violation of a U.N.-brokered cease-fire by Hezbollah and indicate a failure by international peacekeepers to prevent new attacks on Israel."
I thought you guys weren't about picking fights (with the exception of the HA vs. Israeli War and the recent Beirut street blockades, of course).
And just in case this seems like a lone incident, possibly planted by the IDF in a ploy, there's this:
"Hazoot said UNIFIL peacekeepers have thwarted similar Hezbollah attempts to lay roadside bombs in the past, but had failed to do so this time."
Is HA's mission in Beirut really just to buy time until they can successfully get a war going again with Israel?
On Electoral law: I'd agree with one-vote for one-person (despite sect) legislation to be introduced in a few years in Lebanon when HA's Iranian and Syrian funds have waned.
But I would put in the clause that all candidates cannot be members or in affiliation with ARMED militias.
So, HA could still run its candidates in this new system, they just have to give up their AK-47's first.
Staying on track with a focus on the future for Lebanon, with all the new focus by foreign tech companies like Microsoft, Cisco Systems, etc. along with some of the major telecommunications companies, Lebanon might think about making a go at becoming the "Silicon Valley" of the Middle East or Mediterranean.
You've got a very open society compared to the rest in the region and with openness comes bold new ideas, the type that can be put into production to create state of the art technology that would help catapult Lebanon from being a country pitied in the past to one envied in the near future.
UAE is the financial capital and Lebanon can be the technological capital.
And then Sam could find a job and move back the Lebanon from France.
Sam
They cant even agree on the simnplest things and you believe that it will be easy to agree on an electoral law!!!!!
I agree it is not going to be easy, I didn't say it was easy, I said this was the silver lining.
Post a Comment