Friday, February 02, 2007

Silver lining

It seems that there is hope for a peaceful settlement to Lebanon’s crisis, or so it seems…

After last week brief glimpses of hell, Lebanese politicians got a little scared. Nassrallah announced that this is a political disagreement and could only be solved in political means, a big shift from his previous claims of forcing change through demonstrations, road blocking and paralyzing the country.

Additionally, as I stated in a previous post , it is possible to get an idea of future events in Lebanon by decrypting current events in Palestine. For example when I wrote Parallel fates, the situation in Palestine was enflamed while in Lebanon it was pretty calm, a few weeks later hell almost brook loose in Beirut.

So at the moment the situation in Palestine is mixed, Fateh and Hamas are still fighting each other and the intensity of their confrontations changes by the hours. But the main event was the agreement of both parties to hold “peace” talks in Mekka, in response to King Abdallah’s invitation.

So will we witness a Taef-2 in the short future? (Taef was the post civil war Lebanese peace conference, that effectively ended the war in 1990) While on the other hand a possible big confrontation is looming on the horizon as February 14 approaches.

All in all the good signs outweigh, not by much though, the bad ones. So let’s keep our fingers crossed and hope for the better, because the worse is unimaginable...
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