Hezbollah running out of options in their futile and bloody campaign against a steadfast 14 March, have turned to the only front that can still offer them a semblance, and I stress a semblance, of a victory. After five long months of pseudo-military operations in the streets of Beirut, Hezbollah just turned its attention south.
Their drive is focused on two fronts, they’ve picked up their provocation against Israel, with the alarming reports about explosive planting along the border, and the planning of new operations and soldiers kidnapping, which will be soon followed by Hassan Nassralh’s apologies and confession of his total ignorance of the consequences of such attacks. Meanwhile, Hezbollah have been raising their yellow flags all over the border, to show their profound patriotism (sic)
The second front of their attack targeted the UNIFIL forces. Several weeks ago, they started a vicious campaign against the UN forces accusing them of helping the Israeli and even harboring Jews –as if it was a crime- and former members of an old Lebanese pro Israeli militia (Lahed’s). Two silly and unsubstantiated claims, which only aim to threaten the UNIFIL and prepare the ground for some possible future attacks against them.
Hezbollah must understand that whether it is in the south or in the streets of Beirut such threats, aggressions and attacks will lead only to more death and destruction with no gain what so ever for Lebanon or its people. The only way out is peace and dialogue!
7 comments :
So true... Nasrallah starts "creating" his excuses for future attacks, or at least creating a reason for him to exist... when does it all end!
This is most unusual, for the first time in months, I can't find any new rants by Sam since I last posted two days ago.
Maybe he's on sabbatical setting up land mines on the Israeli side of the Lebanese border.
Maybe he's had a crisis of conscience and realizes the error in following HA.
Or maybe he's simply taking a break (oh, how staring at a computer screen can strain the eyes).
Yeah, this is some unusual territory ahead.
The good news is that HA has obviously lost a lot of its prestige following its mini-war with Israel having gotten it's third strike in the general public's eye (First Strike: HA causing the HA vs. Israel War; Second Strike: HA trying to overthrow the Lebanese government)
Having now been exposed for having a pension for non-stop agitation and violence with its most recent misadventure in South Lebanon, HA will no doubt be looking to make trouble to rebolster its image or at least stir up some power through fear.
Bob,
I'm all for:
"The only way out is peace and dialogue!"
I'm just at a bit of loss on how to go about it this with a group like HA.
They walk up to an opponent, and blind side him with a punch to the face.
The opponent responds by kicking HA in the nuts, and HA turns around and claims victim status because it was a low blow completely ignoring the fact that they would never have been hit if they didn't start the fight in the first place.
Lebanon has a large Shiite population, some of which back HA.
Is it possible to reach out to those Shia on the fence to form some kind of truce and mutual support on the issue of stabilizing and realizing a peaceful prosperous Lebanon?
I'm sure politicians are trying to do this, but what really matters is the people they represent.
Could such an exchange through the blogosphere between March 14th and those moderates of the Opposition (who might be contemplating their allegiance to HA given their recent misbehaving) be possible?
Set it up however you like, but make it a peaceful and civil discussion minus the vehement airing of grievances of one side against the other.
See if you can't draw up a guideline or pact amongst all Lebanese people.
Try and find mutual ground from which all groups of Lebanon can agree on for peace amongst each other, with Lebanon's neighbors, government reform, economic reform, etc. that is broad enough for both the Sunni and the Shiite, the Druze and the Christian, etc. to abide by.
Politicians are only as good as the people they represent.
If you take the lead in such an initiative, they'll be forced to follow.
I feel we're past the point of no return. Short of a clear winner and a definite loser, any settlement would only postpone the round of fighting and worsen the outcome.
I agree Mike, and I have been thinking about starting a series of posts that deal with the basic issues and how each party define them. More on this in a few days.
PS: I am starting to worry about Sam too! :) However realizing the errors of his ways is a bit improbable!
Jeha
i hope you are wrong, but i too am pessemistic...
Bob,
As far as Sam, I'm just assuming he got tired of losing the debate on all the main issues, instead flocking to a more sympathetic blog space.
On the current situation:
From some of the articles I've read on the Lebanon situation lately, the behind the scenes string pullers on the Iranian & Syrian side(in negotiations with the West brokered by Saudi Arabia) want a pass on the nuclear sanctions for Tehran and a dismissal of the Hariri Tribunal for Damascas in return for "Pax Lebanon".
The promise of peace in return for agreeing to the terms of the "Troublesome Two" rogue regimes is pretty hollow.
Removing the threats against both countries would mean no more leverage against Iran & Syria, which means nothing to stop them from trying a little later to do what they're currently trying to in Lebanon.
So, the power struggle between the usual suspects over Lebanon (and probably also Palestine and Iraq) is pretty clear.
The question is, what can be done within Lebanon by those of sound mind to diffuse the situation in their favor.
That's a tough one.
No war can be fought without soldiers, though.
And anything that can be done to reach out to those in the Opposition with legitimate concerns and demands that are NOT interested in the clandestine goals HA (on behalf of its foreign masters), might not hurt.
If you could help the formation of a third front (1-March 14th; 2-Opposition under HA; and **3-Opposition without HA**)
Might destabilize the prospects for civil strife.
One way the March 14th government could put HA in a compromising position would be to agree to grant their demand for a minority vote in return for a new amendment to the electoral procedures requiring that all politicians be without MEMBERSHIP or AFFILIATION with armed militias, which would also be formally banned(or at least seriously banned, from now on).
Not allowing "affiliation" would be important because that would keep HA from simply changing their name from "Party of God" to something else like "Party of Volleyballs", thus side stepping the not having "Membership" with an armed militia requirement.
And the depth of "Affiliation" would be linked to those things operated by HA such as bank accounts, public services, Al-Manar TV, funds coming from Iran and Syria.
The "Party of Volleyballs" would have to be fully transparent in its accounting practices and it's politicians or staffcouldn't be involved or receive money from HA.
Now Auon, and the other non-HA members of the Opposition would probably be greatful for the concession, but HA would most likely oppose.
HA could still find ways to funnel money from its resources to the newly created "Party of Volleyballs", but it wouldn't be able to do it in such a large volume or as frequently.
So, you would see the non-HA Opposition move forward to the negotiation table and the HA-based Opposition still staying away creating three groups, where there was originally two.
March 14th could then enter into serious negotions with the non-HA Opposition, making progress, and forming the desired unity government while leaving HA (and its Iranian and Syrian paymasters) out in the cold where they belong.
Just one idea.
Another idea would be to appeal to Iraq's Ayatollah Al-Sistani, who I understand holds greater influence with the Shia of Lebanon than many of the Iranian Ayatollahs.
Ask him to reinforce the calls for peace in the streets, which HA is also doing.
But when HA changes its position and moves to turn up the heat again in Beirut, ask Al-Sistani to continue his calls for peace in the Lebanese streets, further dividing Nasrallahs Shia base.
Again, without soldiers, no war can be fought.
Come on guys!
>>PS: I am starting to worry about
>>Sam too! :) However realizing
>>the errors of his ways is a bit
>>improbable!
>>Jeha
>>i hope you are wrong, but i too
>>am pessemistic...
You are right I didn't forget you, it's just that I'm on travel (in the US) but I will get back soon!
Yalla a bientot Bob and Jeha.
PS: preparing to defend Lebanon against any future israeli agression is provocation?? come on guys are you Lebanese or what? Alla y'semehkon... sorry I couldn't resist answering this one but I didn't know if I was going to laugh or hit my head on the wall when I read that one...
Love you guys, bye now.
Sam,
>You are right I didn't forget you, it's just that I'm on travel (in the US) but I will get back soon!
Yeah, I figured it was either that or had to do with finding your new house in France.
>PS: preparing to defend Lebanon against any future israeli agression is provocation??
It's not "defending" when you do it on the Israeli side of the border. It's called an act of "aggressive provocation"
"See you" when you jump back on the posts.
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