My humanity cringed...

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As most of the Lebanese politicians lined up to salute the returned prisoners, my humanity cringed... like it did when innocent children were killed in Qana, the South and even in Israel.

There are no worse criminals than those who kill children. And nothing, not a cause, no matter how holy or an ideology, no matter how right; or a demand, no matter how just, that can justify the killing of a child...

Samir Kuntar did not deserve a hero’s welcome, he is a child killer. Maybe he atoned for his crime, in his thirty year imprisonment, but that does not absolve him of his barbaric act and warrant him such a celebration. He killed a father in front of his four years old daughter and then smashed her head on a rock, with his machine gun...

In the future, when the next war erupts and children will die from both sides, refrain from condemning Israeli brutality and massacres, for on this day you stood silent... and silence is a crime.

Electoral projections!

As the new “national unity” government was formed, after much horse trading, the focus now shifts to formulating the government’s agenda. Yet despite all these petty squabbles the main issue remains the parliamentary electing that should take place in eight months or so. Each faction is preparing its electoral apparatus and starting the incessant polls and statistic gathering to succeed in the next crucial election.

However, I still believe that the election will not take place. The stakes are too high and both parties cannot afford to lose. A silver lining remains, if the two parties firmly believe that they will win then we might have a slim chance of holding a “peaceful” election, but I doubt that. Lebanon has a small population and at one point the election result will be know, to certain percentage.

Till this moment, at least 75 seats, out of 128, are already divided among the country’s power that be. The main electoral battle will rage among the Christian districts, between Aoun (Hezbollah’s ally) and the 14^th of March coalition.

During the next few months I will try to keep an ongoing, gradually refined electoral projection, on my blog. My methodology will be as follow: I will collect as many projection and polls as I can find in the local and international press, and use the 2005 and 2007 by election results to try and form a projection. (For those interested you can view my earlier attempt at projecting the results of the 2007 by elections here and here)

Hezbollah and Chebbaa farms

In 2000 when Israel withdrew from South Lebanon, Hezbollah decided to continue its resistance against Israel's occupation. So they dug up old maps of a 50 km2 strip of land called Chebbaa farms and decided that it was part of Lebanon.

However, that piece of land being under the control of Syria in 1967 it was occupied by Israel and considered Syrian. So Israel refused to give up this small plot...eight years forward, after one war, several clashes, thousands of casualties, the land is still "occupied” by Israel and Hezbollah is still trying to free it.

A week ago the US secretary Condoleezza Rice visited Lebanon and declared the US intention to work on placing Chebbaa under UN control until its border is firmly marked and placed under the Syrian or Lebanese sovereignty. (Syria to keep the resistance going in Lebanon always refused to deliver the necessary paperwork to the UN to award Lebanon sovereignty)

Lo and behold Hezbollah officials bristled with indignation, denouncing this move as a ploy to end the resistance and strip its weapons… in other words Hezbollah was against a full Israeli withdrawal from supposedly Lebanese lands because this will end their divine resistance.

A Lebanese paradox par excellence. A resistance that encourages an occupier “occupation” and attacks any effort at freeing the land, maybe Hezbollah has an exclusive dealership on freeing lands…

Meanwhile the political crisis drags on, slowly rotting the stats and its institutions away; at least we have a president. And this is what driving General Aoun (Hezbollah staunchest ally) even madder.

"I am proud to be part of the Wilayat el Fakih"

Nassrallah was very adamant in admitting that he was part of Iran's politico-religious hegemony, saying outloud that he was " proud to be part of the Wilayat el Fakih" But, he claimed that this same supreme authority wanted only the best for Lebanon and insisted on a multicultural and diverse country.

A simple question comes to mind... what would happen when this divine authority no longer desire a multicultural, democratic and free Lebanon? Nassrallah himself answered that question: he is first and foremost part of Iran's hegemony and he will follow it regardless of Lebanon's interests. Further evidences were abundantly witnessed in Beirut's street when Hezbollah went on a murderous rampage.

Meanwhile, the truce brokered in Doha seems to be holding. But the volcano that erupted two weeks ago is far from dead. Too many issues were left unresolved, and too much blood has been spilled. And most of all, it seems that Hezbollah has suffered its first military set back in years.

The Druze in Mount Lebanon fought Hezbollah militiamen to a stand still, inflicting heavy casualties (Nassrallah admitted 14 death, the toll is rumored to be much higher and includes two top ranking field officers...)

Everyday brings more tales of the fierce battles that raged in the mountains, when Hezbollah was forced to use artillery and mortars to fend off the fierce defense of Joumblatt's men and even Hezbollah own druze allies who refused to see their homes overrun by Nassrallah's militiamen.

In the mean time, despite all the venomous rhetoric, threats and accusations hurled at PM Siniora and all the pressure Nassrallah exerted, PM Siniora is back in office with a strong President holding the fragile peace together. And until further notice, Lebanon is a democracy and in such a system there is only one method of gaining political control...elections...

We have a new president!

May he be better than the last one...

Finally, some good news!

As the dust settled after last week's bloody turmoils and the miraculous Doha accord has been signed, i cannot but wonder why blood is always necessary to cement any agreement, even as tentative and precarious as the one our esteemed leaders signed.

The agreement is a pure horse-traders compromise, with a Lebanese flavor. All large factions got a share of the cake, but one, while the small minorities and emerging parties were sacrificed on the altar of national entente.

The propaganda machines of the two opponent switch to high gear in order to portrait the accord as a victory. Yet a the FPM emerged as a clear loser, while its TV network is toiling incessantly to portrait the orange General as a major winner in the current agreement, with his successful defense of the Christians rights, that was threatened by 14 March voracious appetite.

But the bitterness, disappointment and aimlessness was so evident. General Aoun has lost his final bid to an illusive presidency, that he has been chasing for the last 20 years. His defense of "Christian rights"was only a narrow selfish battle for his own political power. As the General waged his battle on Beirut's Christian MP seats that were controlled by Sunni majority, asking for their transfer to another district ( which falls under Shiite control- the current allies of the general-) He "forgot" all about the Christian seats controlled by Shiite majorities in the Bekaa...i wonder why...

All in all, Wednesday was a bright day in Lebanon's history. An agreement has been reached, and peace once again twinkle closer on the horizon, like an ever illusive rainbow. Hezbollah's men, who have been occupying Beirut's central district folded their tents and packed their guns. Beirut regained its heart. And a new President will finally be elected this Sunday.

Good news...yet a distant voice keeps me worried... But the time is for happy thoughts and not for dark ruminations... So i will go out and celebrate in Beirut's Down Town, maybe hit Buddah Bar for a night of drunken festivities, and of course make a long forgotten toast in a pub named Taboo...