Monday, July 14, 2008

Electoral projections!

As the new “national unity” government was formed, after much horse trading, the focus now shifts to formulating the government’s agenda. Yet despite all these petty squabbles the main issue remains the parliamentary electing that should take place in eight months or so. Each faction is preparing its electoral apparatus and starting the incessant polls and statistic gathering to succeed in the next crucial election.

However, I still believe that the election will not take place. The stakes are too high and both parties cannot afford to lose. A silver lining remains, if the two parties firmly believe that they will win then we might have a slim chance of holding a “peaceful” election, but I doubt that. Lebanon has a small population and at one point the election result will be know, to certain percentage.

Till this moment, at least 75 seats, out of 128, are already divided among the country’s power that be. The main electoral battle will rage among the Christian districts, between Aoun (Hezbollah’s ally) and the 14th of March coalition.

During the next few months I will try to keep an ongoing, gradually refined electoral projection, on my blog. My methodology will be as follow: I will collect as many projection and polls as I can find in the local and international press, and use the 2005 and 2007 by election results to try and form a projection. (For those interested you can view my earlier attempt at projecting the results of the 2007 by elections here and here)

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