A year ago...

A year ago Hezbollah thugs invaded Beirut, killing, maiming and burning... They occupied the city, terrorized its people and shut down its press...

Yet They failed. A year past, Saad Hariri is still here, and so is Joumblatt and the rest of the Cedar revolution. Moreover, they even denied them their goal: All what it would have taken was for Saad Hariri to call the banners, and hell would have broken loose. The army would have split and the country would have plunged into an never ending civil war (in the days following may 7, most of the senior army officers close to march 14 presented their resignation because the army command failed to defend the people of Beirut. It took Saad Hariri all his clout to change their mind and convince them to return to their post, in order to preserve the army unity.)

A year has past, and the country is poised for another test: the parliamentary election. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has proven once and for all that they are just another militia, and all of Nassrallah promises that he Will never turn his guns against other Lebanese have proven false, and his other promises about his party ultimate goals stooping at defending Lebanon has also been shattered when the Egyptian caught a Hezbollah cells planning terror attack in Egypt...

Lebanon and Syria...

Here we go again!

With a bit more than a month left before the June 7 parliamentary election in Lebanon, the political arena is feverish...

during the last stretch i will try to restart my blogging, offer some insight and as per my blogging tradition i will offer my own electoral projection. ( for past example check here and here)

Glad to be back and let's really see which way Lebanon will take... moderation, progress, democracy, freedom of speech and development or the other way, a la Syria and Iran.

I will have a counter on the right side of my blog, showing the projected results for each party. On one hand the 14 March coalition (Future Movement, Phalangist, Walid Joumblatt, Lebanese Forces and several other smaller groups), and on the other hand the 8 march coalition (including Hezbollah, Aoun, Speaker Berri's Amal Movement, and a constellation of smaller pro Syrian parties like the SSNP...)

In the next couple of days i will present the two main coalitions in details with links to their main web sites. And additionally, i am starting a parallel blog solely for a detailed projection of the next election.

The madness must end!

I am sick and tired of this endless circle of bloody violence. I am sick of the self serving, righteous rhetoric that both sides are using. I am sick of so called "resistance" movement and supporters, who care less about the welfare of there people, than about their divine victories, that leaves thousands dead in their wake. The madness must stop, and it will never do unless the moderates, the peace loving people, from both sides raise their voice and act...

Amid all this bloodshed, nothing reeked more of hypocrisy and double talk than Nassrallah. He launched a full blown attack against Egypt and the rest of the moderate Arabs, almost forgetting about Israel.

What is worse is his call for the Egyptian army to revolt and attack Israel and its own government, to help their brother in Gaza. But wonder of all wonders, Nassrallah asked OTHERS to revolt and attack, while he sits in his cozy little bunker hoarding his 40000 missiles, watching his allies in Gaza being blown to pieces, accusing Egypt and the rest of the Arabs of inaction!!! What a perfect text book example of hypocrisy and what an ally!!!

So Hezbollah needs to act and show us how much you care about the welfare of the Palestinian, before going berserk against the rest of the Arab. But maybe their weapons will only be used against fellow Lebanese, like they did on the 7th of May, but maybe they are waiting for their orders from Iran?

In the end, no one cares about the civilians in Gaza, neither Israel or even less Hamas and Hezbollah. Once more the Palestinians are paying the price of the struggles of regional and world powers on their land.

A slow unraveling of the state...

Despite all the agreement, reconciliation and dialogue day by day the security situation on the ground worsen. A shooting there, a killing here, some bombs in that neighborhood, an assassination over there, and the trends is growing.

The army, since Hezbolah attack on Beirut, has been sitting by, rarely getting involved for fear of clashing with the perpetrators and unraveling into several warring armies divided by sect. (Similar to what happened in the 1976-90 civil war)

People fearing for their lives, have either resorted to buying some weapons for self defense or resorted to the famed Lebanese tradition of nonchalance: we die when we die. Or simply immigrated to a less crazy country.

Meanwhile, everybody is waiting for the big explosion, the next war in the region. Unfortunately no one knows where it will start or between whom: Israel-Hezbollah, US-Iran, Israel-Iran, or any other possible permutations.

The summer is over, and once more we wait. We wait for a solution, a settlement that will never come and fear a crisis that is slow to erupt, living in perpetual limbo, while the state, our country, our lives slowly disintegrated around us...

What is brewing in Syria?

In the last couple of months Bashar Assad’s totalitarian regime have been subject to a series of high profile assassinations. First, Hezbollah’s military operations commander, Imad Mughnieh, who was killed in one of Damascus most secure neighborhoods. Then Mohammad Suleiman, Assad’s military right hand, was killed in his sumptuous villas on Tartous sea side.

When Mughnieh was first killed, my first impression was that the Mossad (Israel foreign intelligence service) was behind the assassination. But I felt that if we witnessed a certain rapprochement between Israel and Syria after the killing, it might means that the Syrian were somehow involved. And without much surprise, two countries started peace negotiations a few months after Mughnieh assassination.

So in view of all these developments, several scenarios were put forth, to explain Suleiman assassination: he was killed by the Iranian/Hezbollah for his involvement in Mughnieh termination, a scenario that I do not favor. Or it was an internal job caused by some inter-fighting between several Syrian clans (maybe Assad’s and Ashaf Shoukat’s). Or maybe the Mossad is once more settling some old scores...

Never the less that who did is less important than the act itself, and its immediate implications. Syria is witnessing a power struggle and there is a hidden power shift currently at work. Who will come on top is the question that should be asked.