At the moment the situation in Lebanon is similar to the MAD ear of the cold war. Both parties have the means to wreak havoc and usher chaos. So both parties are waiting for each other to make the first step.
In other words it is a status-quo, albeit a very dangerous one. The 14th March coalition will not elect a president with an absolute majority, while Hezbollah and Aoun will not form a second government.
Meanwhile, the current arrangement will continue. PM Siniora will keep his job and his government will rule the country in a low profile fashion. President Lahoud will go home and will not form a parallel government. But remember that is the best case scenario.
On the other hand, i would like to salute PM Siniora and the 14th of March. After all the assassination, threats and bullying our government stood fast and proved that violence and intimidation do not work with us. If Hezbollah wants a political change or a bigger share int he government they have to give concession and have a dialog. Violence is not acceptable nad it will not frighten us!!
2 comments :
what's a worst case scenario?
something like what is happening in Gaza. Two government, separation. Civil strife, war...
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