Friday, August 03, 2007

Electoral Analysis Part III

As the fateful day draw near more and more indications about the results are emerging.

Gebran Bassil, Aoun's son in law and one of the top FPM leaders said yesterday on LBC TV station, in a talk show (Kalam el Nas) that in fact the FPM did win 70% of the votes in 2005 (like they have been claiming for the past 2 years) they only won 63%, and a couple percentage drop would not diminish their victory. And one of the topics on the FPM bulletin board argues that even a 50%+1 results is a victory.

This indicates that the FPM is no longer expecting a big difference between the two candidates. So it seems that my analysis was in the right direction. The difference will be around 5% at most, either ways. And a recent survey by The International Information Institute published in Assafir and in Annahar point for a similar conclusion.

This survey also state that there is a 10% of undecided, and reported that by studying the breakdown of voting intentions by sect points out to 17.7% drop in Aoun popularity.

Additionaly, Al-Akhbare ( a newspaper very close to the opposition and to the FPM) stated that 7000 voters out of Michel Murr's bloc will vote for Amine Gemayel. If i compute this number in my previous analysis the result would become as follow:

So the final numbers become like this:

35650 + 7000 (from Murr up from 2800) for the Kateb and allies

25500 for Aoun and his allies

7000 Tachnak

7000 for Murr (down form 11200, based on the new numbers)

Total for Amin Gemayel: 42600

Total for Aoun: 39500


And this shows that a 4000 difference in vote can change the whole result.

So once more, Sunday's election will be incredibly close, the two candidates are neck to neck with a slight advantage to Aoun...

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