Gebran Bassil, Aoun's son in law and one of the top FPM leaders said yesterday on LBC TV station, in a talk show (Kalam el Nas) that in fact the FPM did win 70% of the votes in 2005 (like they have been claiming for the past 2 years) they only won 63%, and a couple percentage drop would not diminish their victory. And one of the topics on the FPM bulletin board argues that even a 50%+1 results is a victory.
This indicates that the FPM is no longer expecting a big difference between the two candidates. So it seems that my analysis was in the right direction. The difference will be around 5% at most, either ways. And a recent survey by The International Information Institute published in Assafir and in Annahar point for a similar conclusion.
This survey also state that there is a 10% of undecided, and reported that by studying the breakdown of voting intentions by sect points out to 17.7% drop in Aoun popularity.
Additionaly, Al-Akhbare ( a newspaper very close to the opposition and to the FPM) stated that 7000 voters out of Michel Murr's bloc will vote for Amine Gemayel. If i compute this number in my previous analysis the result would become as follow:
So the final numbers become like this:
35650 + 7000 (from Murr up from 2800) for the Kateb and allies
25500 for Aoun and his allies
7000 Tachnak
7000 for Murr (down form 11200, based on the new numbers)
Total for Amin Gemayel: 42600
Total for Aoun: 39500
And this shows that a 4000 difference in vote can change the whole result.
So once more, Sunday's election will be incredibly close, the two candidates are neck to neck with a slight advantage to Aoun...
4 comments :
This site is great.
Ty you very much for your kind words :)
bob, interesting analysis. However, I think these surveys and analysis are never final and the figures may not be very accurate indicatives. For one, we don't know what sort of methods Al-Akhbare used in gathering their information...
However, I believe that the results are going to be extremely tight. If Aoun were to take the victory to Baabda, it won't be a wopping great one.
I will visit your blog once again to compare the official results with your interesting analysis.
Dear Bob,
You insist on this diffamating denomination:
"Aoun and his allies (= SSNP)" separated from Tashnag and Murr.
Ok, very good. Can you explain me who was in Dbayeh on 3 August to support Camille Khoury?
There were Tashnag, Murr and FPM. SSNP was not invited of course and you know that. Also you know very well that FPM will never refuse any support but did you already see a SSNP candidate supported by FPM?
SSNP supporting FPM is not the same thing than FPM supporting the SSNP candidate. If one day, we reach this case, then you're right. But until now, SSNP were never invited by FPM to any meeting. Even during the opposition demonstrations, when meetings were held in Rabieh... SSNP was not invited although they are against the government.
You know very well that insisting on SSNP can help you propagate false ideas about FPM but I hope Metnis will countercare this kind of manipulations. This is not fair at all, although your global analysis is quite good. Of course, for me FPM will win, but you have the right to deliver such analysis, numbers are not a problem. The problem is that you are not honest when talking about FPM. I am sure you know our history, our achievments and our will for national unity.
In another post, you told me that it was bad tyo be allied to Hezbollah because they are pro-syrian. Fine.
But do you know there is a Memorandum of understanding between FPM and Hezbollah where it is set that:
- they are against Syrian hegemony
- they are calling for the return of the Lebanese in the syrian jails.
- they are for the return of Lebanese who fled to Israel in 2000.
- they are against any foreign tutellage
- they are against the "Tawteen" (Palestinian naturalization)
- they are for a civil society
- they finded a good agreements about the end of the Hezbollah arms. Its revendications were for the first time limited to the Lebanese one. By the way, I have to remind you that the governement you are supporting has given "carte blanche" and full support to Hezbollah in its governmental declaration in July 2005. So , in February 2006, when the Understanding was signed between FPM and Hezbollah, it was the first time Hezbollah dialogued about its arms and made concessions.
You keep on not recognizing the big step FPM did in order to attract Hezbollah on the Lebanese track.
did you know that Hezbollah was allied to Hariri on June 2005 elections? And on July 2005 in the government until 2006...
So, that's not fair to use the "Hezbollah and pro-syrian" rhetoric when FPM signed an Understanding with them while you didn't question your governement when they were allied to them without any understanding.
At least, criticize the content of the understanding instead of basing your arguments on usual prejudices. That's all what I ask for.
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