Tuesday, May 22, 2007

Sliding...

The situation is sliding into an attrition war. The broad support by all Lebanese and Palestinian faction, other than “Fateh al Islam”, to the army and its actions against those cold blood terrorist, has been eroding rapidly…

The main Palestinian representative in Lebanon has started speaking about the cost of the army attack on the naher el Bered camp and the need to find a political resolution to the crisis. Several protests march where held in the other palesitnain camps spread all over lebanon.

I think that the window of opportunity, to decisively resolve the situation, is rapidly closing, a day or two at most. A political “resolution” will only postpone the problem and even compound it. If “fateh al islam” terrorists are not dealt with decisively, then a couple of month down the road we will face an even bigger explosion.

Meanwhile, the opposition is totally politicizing the situation making the army’s job even more difficult, while explosions are not stopping. for the first time, west Beirut (mainly Muslim) has been hit.

Fortunately, the casualties have been low, as those who are planting these bombs are purposely placing them in deserted places late at night. A fact that definetly innocent any Queada like organization, whose sole objective is to kill a maximum number of innocents, as Iraq is the biggest example...

Finally let us hope that tongiht will be calm...

22 comments :

Anonymous said...

Bob,
You might be surprised but I mostly agree with you on this.
Yes the window of opportunity is closing rapidly and yes you are also right we can have the same problem later.
The danger here is that a fairly isolated group of people can tansform this into a Palestinian/Lebanese war if we enter the camps because then the other Palestinian factions (which don't like Fath el islam) will feel forced to resist any attempt of our army to enter the camps hence the problem. We don't need this.
On top of that our army performed poorly. I was shocked to see soldiers in action with no helmit and no kevlar vest. This is totally unacceptable, I am so outraged and I blame this government. I mean if they want a political solution do it, if they want confrontation do it but do it properly. But again I don't expect much from this government for me they are a bunch of incompetents, unfortunetly.

BOB said...

On one hand the opposition criticizes the government spending and blame them on the 45 billion debt and accuse them of being illegitimate and impede them from doing their job. (by withholding the presidential signature and refusing to open a new parliament session, for example the president Lahoud refused to sign a decree to give the army service men a one month bonus for all the hardship they have been through.)

And on the other hand they-and you- accuse them of being incompetent…
Man just pick your mind and stick on a position you can’t have it both ways!!!

Anonymous said...

Bob,
They are incompetent but the better word would be corrupt.
They didn't find the money for Kevlar vests and helmets but have a lot of it to buy range rovers for officers... Give me a break man! The abuses are unbearable.
Yes there is a political stalemate going on but that doesn't justify the generalised corruption of this government, just stop finding excuses for such injustice. I mean if it was their sons going to war, would they send them with just a beret and no Kevlar vest??

Anonymous said...

Hi Bob,

Can you please explain a little more about "Fateh al Islam"?

What is there history? where they came from? why they attacking the army in general and how did they grow to this size without anyone to notice or to do anything?

also, I wonder if anyone found any proof that show that they are backed up by Syria and Iran or if its just assumptions.


Thanks for the info, hope that things will get better soon for you.

Anonymous said...

Fatah al Islam, the group which is fighting here, is a little splinter group of several hundreds, that split from Fatah during the 90s, and joined what we call "Global Jihad". The splinting of groups from Fatah towards global jihad begun in 1985, with Hisham Sharidi, who activated a small group of bandits named Asbat al Ansar, which raided Christian and infidel targets (alchohol shops etc.).

His replacer, Ahmad al Saadi, took this little organisation a step forward. In 1991 he made contacts with Binladen, who was the chief terrorist contractor in those times, basicly the highest ranking adjutant of the global terrorist army. He was responsible for directing different groups of fanatic maniacs to different training camps, where they will become useful terrorists, and then he would take up sending them to different warzones according to the demands of the leadership. al Saadi wanted the Palestinians to gain experience and to train next to world ranking terrorists, his first batch of volunteers was actually sent to Chechnya.

Fatah in ain al hilwe also has contacts with the global jihad movement, Munir Maqdah was/is the contact man at ain al hilwe. Originally a Fatah guy, he split from Fatah at the early 90s, he sent many Palestinians to Iraq as a part of the relations with global jihad, he also worked adjointely with Imad Morghniya. He was tried in abstenia in Jordan for his parts for mass murders there, and ran global jihad cells in Jenin and Nablus.

Anonymous said...

Bob,
Did you hear what Talal Assaad, a former Future movement leader, had to say about how the future movement was giving money and support to Fateh el islam, and even asking them to create sectarian problems with Shiites and Alaouites in northern Lebanon!?
You also forgot to mention that Fath el islam is using heavy american weaponry, hmmm wonder why!!

BOB said...

sam as always SOURCES!!!!!
where did you get your info? Al Manar or Al Akhbar????

Anonymous said...

Bob here is the source:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pEI0QmBywJY&eurl=
Enjoy!

BOB said...

ahhh

i was wrong it was NTV another propaganda machine.
so for your source are just a random guy on TV who says that and you believe him... no fact checking and no background...

At least, just at least bring me some written article fro a renowned objective journalist with SOURCES!!! you know what that mean? something i can check for myself objectively. Not some random guy's ramblings... cause believe me Lebanese TV are full of that and i believe none of it...
cause if i was like i would posted like many links from other Tv that totally oppose that piece you linked... and who then will be right??

BOB said...

and bytheway

where is your source for the American weapons fathe al Islam are using?

Anonymous said...

Bob,
The source is not NTV, the source is TALAL ASSAAD himself. NTV was in this case just the mean that allowed him to give the info, no one denied his claims.
You can go talk to him directly, no one is keeping you from doing that.
But here let me point to the irony, you use Friedman (a well known zionist who was wrong time and again in the past and admitted he was), as your source but all serious journalists and media are just propaganda for you!
Hersh is an al qaida guy? Le Monde, AP, Reuters, The Independant, Daily telegraph are all wrong?
Even Bahiyya al Hariri, the sister of Rafic Hariri herself, will tell you the same thing privetly.
Ok here is an article from the NY times (not Friedman) from yesterday:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/28/world/middleeast/28exodus.html?em&ex=1180411200&en=2cbd16b5ab895b9b&ei=5087%0A
About the weapons I read it somewhere I think reuters but I'm not sure, I promise you this: I will find it for you.
Oh here is another very well written article, on ISM:
http://www.ism-france.org/news/article.php?id=6839&type=analyse

Anonymous said...

Bob,
Better than words, PICTURES on CNN of the US weapons used by Fath El Islam!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlIzWg6P5fU
These pictures of training of Fath El Islam were shown on CNN during an interview they conducted with Hersh (Note: images were given by CNN NOT Hersh).
Just look and admire the beautiful shining american weaponry!!

BOB said...

Sam

You don't seem to know the difference between an opinion and an analytical or factual article...
Freidman was giving his opinion no where did he claim to state facts.

your problem is that you take everything said that support your side as facts and disregard anything that opposes your position...

About he weapons i will advice you to watch Lord of War, a beautiful movies that explain ab bit about arms trafficking. M16 are made and sold and resold all over the world. For example what weapons you think hezbollah use? among other M16, Uzi (israli machine gun...) and of course Kalashnikov. what about the insurgents in Iraq... same weapons

BOB said...

Sam

bytheway spare me your "very well written" ISM article.
Pure propaganda work, how does she know what she knows? no a single source int he whole article. You see the main difference btw freidman and her article is that the first offerers n opinion about what should Nassrallah do, while the second claims top have information and facts about the situation without any source or even quotes...pfff

Anonymous said...

Bob,
First, Friedman was giving his opinion but he WAS claiming to state facts. Example: he was stating that Nasrallah is an Arab Leader (I wish he was but he isn't). Although Nasrallah has a clout over the vast majority of Arabs (and even non arabs) he is the head of a resistance movement not an arab leader.
I can go on and on but frankly Friedman's article is so bad that I don't even think it is worth commenting.

Second, true, the article of Rim Al Khatib doesn't have any source, it is an opinion. Do you know the difference between an opinion and an analytical article?

BOB said...

Sam

Your answer are so shallow that the opnly thing you can say to me is repeat what i said in the first place.

But i will humor you, when Rim al-Khatib says "le chef de l'armée a questionné le responsable de la sécurité intérieure pourquoi l'armée n'a pas été mise au courant de l'opération sécuritaire en cours à Tripoli." is that an opinion or a fact?

more "Fateh al-islam n'est pas une organisation palestinienne. S'il a été formé au départ par une scission d'une scission pro-syrienne du Fateh, il n'en demeure pas moins que les Palestiniens de Nahr al-Bared savent de qui est formé ce groupe"

more "Bahiyya al-Hariri, soeur du feu Rafik Hariri et éloignée du clan Hariri à cause de ses positions nationales, a longuement parlementé avec son neveu pour permettre l'intervention des secours aux Palestiniens encerclés dans le camp de Nahr-al-Bared."

now tell me opinion or fact? let me give you the dictionary definition maybe that will help you, but before let me point out under what section the article you pretend to be an opinion is listed in : ANALYSES

so plz before claiming that I dont know what is an opinion and what is an analysis, do your self a favor and read the following definition!

Opinion: a personal belief or judgment that is not founded on proof or certainty.

and i will let you find out about the definition of analytical article, searching a bit would do you good...

Anonymous said...

Bob,
How can you give an opinion without stating facts?
Concerning the difference between fact and opinion the same applies to the Friedman article.
If Rim's article is not about opinion than Friedman's article is not either.
But there is a difference between Rim and Friedman: Rim states facts (without giving sources) but Friedman "invents" facts (cf my example, Nasrallah is not an arab leader, he is the head of a party and a resistance movement).
Although Rim's article is far from perfect, she has good points (the fact that fath el islam is made up mostly of Lebanese and nationalities other than Palestinian). The source for this is the Lebanese army itself: the members of Fath El Islam that the Lebanese army caught were found to be Lebanese, Libyans, Tunisians, Yemenis, Saudis, a Syrian...The known head is palestinian but
that does not make it a palestinian movement, sorry but Rim brought a very good point!

Anonymous said...

Bob there you go, this info 2 minutes ago on Le Monde .fr
among the 20 for trial 19 are Lebanese and one is Syrian.
Plus look at the last paragraph:
D'après les autorités libanaises, le Fatah al Islam est composé d'Arabes en provenance d'Arabie saoudite, d'Algérie, de Tunisie, de Syrie et du Liban.
Fath el Islam a Palestinian movement? give me a break!
Vingt activistes du Fatah al Islam inculpés au Liban
Reuters 30.05.07 | 14h29
Par Nazih Siddiq

NAHR AL BARED, Liban (Reuters) - L'armée libanaise combat pour une 11e journée consécutive des activistes du Fatah al Islam retranchés dans le camp de réfugiés palestinien de Nahr al Bared, dans le nord du pays.

La justice libanaise a, dans le même temps, inculpé de terrorisme 20 de ces extrémistes islamistes.

De sources judiciaires, on a déclaré que 19 Libanais et un Syrien, tous en détention préventive, avaient été inculpés pour les affrontements survenus autour du camp de Nahr al Bared, qui ont fait 79 morts - 34 militaires, 27 activistes et 18 civils.

Ils encourent la peine de mort.

Les autorités libanaises imputent au Fatah al Islam la responsabilité de ces combats, déclenchés par des attaques contre les positions de l'armée autour du camp et près de la ville voisine de Tripoli le 20 mai.

Les belligérants ont à nouveau échangé des tirs d'artillerie et d'obus de mortier pendant plusieurs heures dans la nuit de mardi à mercredi. D'après des témoins, il s'agit des plus violents affrontements en une semaine.

La situation s'est progressivement calmée aux premières heures de la journée.

DE L'AIDE ACHEMINÉE DANS LE CAMP

Le gouvernement libanais exige la reddition des activistes. Le Fatah al Islam dit se trouver en situation d'autodéfense et exclut toute reddition.

Un accord arabe de 1969 interdit à l'armée libanaise de pénétrer dans les douze camps de réfugiés palestiniens du Liban, dans lesquels vivent 400.000 personnes.

Le gouvernement libanais a autorisé une médiation de responsables palestiniens pour tenter de trouver une issue à la crise, de crainte qu'elle se propage à l'ensemble des camps de réfugiés.

Sur les 40.000 habitants de Nahr al Bared, plus de 25.000 ont fui les combats et se sont abrités en majorité dans le camp voisin de Beddaoui.

De la nourriture, des médicaments et de l'eau ont été acheminés à l'intérieur de Nahr al Bared, où la population encore présente n'a plus ni eau courante ni électricité, ont rapporté des témoins.

Des membres de la majorité parlementaire à Beyrouth affirment que le Fatah al Islam n'est qu'un paravent pour les activités des services de renseignement syriens au Liban, ce que Damas dément.

D'après les autorités libanaises, le Fatah al Islam est composé d'Arabes en provenance d'Arabie saoudite, d'Algérie, de Tunisie, de Syrie et du Liban.

Anonymous said...

Bob,
Another very good point Rim brings up is that every time something happens, before even knowing the details some supporters of this government just blame Syria. I agree that Syria's role in Lebanon has often been problematic but Rim is right this is really becoming ridiculous.

BOB said...

Sam

again you link two completely separate issues. The article of freidman and Rim...

I won't go into detailed analysis i will just tell you once more what each author qualified their article:
freidman's was under OPINION
rim was under ANALYSIS

damming evidence don't you think?

Anonymous said...

Bob,
Is this a serious discussion or are we just playing on words?
An analysis is by definition giving an opinion on events.

BOB said...

Sam

Please do us a favor and check a dictionary before giving us definitions....

an analysis is an opinion... wow... now i understand why you confuse the two concepts...

Just to help you out, in journalism they are totally opposite...