Friday, January 19, 2007

Crying wolf

Since HA started its protest movement they have been using a “surprise surprise” method. In other words, they have been keeping the nature, date and target of their demonstration secret until the very last moment. And even sometimes announcing a demonstration, then cancelling or postponing it…

In the first weeks, this strategy proved very effective in scaring people and suffocating an already dying economy. However, since the beginning of the New Year, people have slowly gotten over their fear and dread of these ambulant demonstrations and life (outside down Town) have slowly returned to a semblance of normality, while the economic situation did not improve much…

Faced with an enormous deadlock and a steadfast 14 March, Hezbollah found no other way but to increase the intensity of their demonstrations, and announced that they will support and participate in a series of sit-ins and demonstrations that will target several Ministries, decided earlier by the General Worker Union of Lebanon (an trade union totally controlled by Syria in the past and now by Hezbollah)

What happened next raised a few eyebrows in surprise. The demonstration failed to attract more than a couple of hundred people, most of them Hezbollah security forces (indibat). This blatant failure signed the death sentence of the Union and questioned the long term mobilization capabilities of Hezbollah’s allies, especially Aoun and Frangieh. While Hezbollah mobilization, being based on religion doctrine and believes, can be easily reinvigorated.

I totally do not understand how Hezbollah could commit such a blunder, and later on aggravate it by claiming that the opposition did not participate in these sit-ins on purpose, to let the Union Association prove itself. While some Hezbollah officials trying to find a positive spin to this failure claimed that the space in front of ministries could not handle many demonstrators (sic). I was under the impression that the smaller the space the better the demonstration will look! (As the numbers will significantly look bigger!)

Anyways, they failed in round two as they failed in round one (the big demonstration and permanent sit in) and they are promising, again, further escalation and civil disobedience. Frankly they have cried wolf so many times that I no longer believe them, or care about their next move.

At the end, they must understand that the only way to solve this crisis is to pass the international tribunal in the parliament and change the president, and early parliamentary election will be organized and we will let the people decide for themselves. Meanwhile, all what they are doing is hurting the economy and wasting much needed time to enact reforms and reconstruct the war damage…
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