What is brewing in Syria?

In the last couple of months Bashar Assad’s totalitarian regime have been subject to a series of high profile assassinations. First, Hezbollah’s military operations commander, Imad Mughnieh, who was killed in one of Damascus most secure neighborhoods. Then Mohammad Suleiman, Assad’s military right hand, was killed in his sumptuous villas on Tartous sea side.

When Mughnieh was first killed, my first impression was that the Mossad (Israel foreign intelligence service) was behind the assassination. But I felt that if we witnessed a certain rapprochement between Israel and Syria after the killing, it might means that the Syrian were somehow involved. And without much surprise, two countries started peace negotiations a few months after Mughnieh assassination.

So in view of all these developments, several scenarios were put forth, to explain Suleiman assassination: he was killed by the Iranian/Hezbollah for his involvement in Mughnieh termination, a scenario that I do not favor. Or it was an internal job caused by some inter-fighting between several Syrian clans (maybe Assad’s and Ashaf Shoukat’s). Or maybe the Mossad is once more settling some old scores...

Never the less that who did is less important than the act itself, and its immediate implications. Syria is witnessing a power struggle and there is a hidden power shift currently at work. Who will come on top is the question that should be asked.

My humanity cringed...

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As most of the Lebanese politicians lined up to salute the returned prisoners, my humanity cringed... like it did when innocent children were killed in Qana, the South and even in Israel.

There are no worse criminals than those who kill children. And nothing, not a cause, no matter how holy or an ideology, no matter how right; or a demand, no matter how just, that can justify the killing of a child...

Samir Kuntar did not deserve a hero’s welcome, he is a child killer. Maybe he atoned for his crime, in his thirty year imprisonment, but that does not absolve him of his barbaric act and warrant him such a celebration. He killed a father in front of his four years old daughter and then smashed her head on a rock, with his machine gun...

In the future, when the next war erupts and children will die from both sides, refrain from condemning Israeli brutality and massacres, for on this day you stood silent... and silence is a crime.

Electoral projections!

As the new “national unity” government was formed, after much horse trading, the focus now shifts to formulating the government’s agenda. Yet despite all these petty squabbles the main issue remains the parliamentary electing that should take place in eight months or so. Each faction is preparing its electoral apparatus and starting the incessant polls and statistic gathering to succeed in the next crucial election.

However, I still believe that the election will not take place. The stakes are too high and both parties cannot afford to lose. A silver lining remains, if the two parties firmly believe that they will win then we might have a slim chance of holding a “peaceful” election, but I doubt that. Lebanon has a small population and at one point the election result will be know, to certain percentage.

Till this moment, at least 75 seats, out of 128, are already divided among the country’s power that be. The main electoral battle will rage among the Christian districts, between Aoun (Hezbollah’s ally) and the 14^th of March coalition.

During the next few months I will try to keep an ongoing, gradually refined electoral projection, on my blog. My methodology will be as follow: I will collect as many projection and polls as I can find in the local and international press, and use the 2005 and 2007 by election results to try and form a projection. (For those interested you can view my earlier attempt at projecting the results of the 2007 by elections here and here)

Hezbollah and Chebbaa farms

In 2000 when Israel withdrew from South Lebanon, Hezbollah decided to continue its resistance against Israel's occupation. So they dug up old maps of a 50 km2 strip of land called Chebbaa farms and decided that it was part of Lebanon.

However, that piece of land being under the control of Syria in 1967 it was occupied by Israel and considered Syrian. So Israel refused to give up this small plot...eight years forward, after one war, several clashes, thousands of casualties, the land is still "occupied” by Israel and Hezbollah is still trying to free it.

A week ago the US secretary Condoleezza Rice visited Lebanon and declared the US intention to work on placing Chebbaa under UN control until its border is firmly marked and placed under the Syrian or Lebanese sovereignty. (Syria to keep the resistance going in Lebanon always refused to deliver the necessary paperwork to the UN to award Lebanon sovereignty)

Lo and behold Hezbollah officials bristled with indignation, denouncing this move as a ploy to end the resistance and strip its weapons… in other words Hezbollah was against a full Israeli withdrawal from supposedly Lebanese lands because this will end their divine resistance.

A Lebanese paradox par excellence. A resistance that encourages an occupier “occupation” and attacks any effort at freeing the land, maybe Hezbollah has an exclusive dealership on freeing lands…

Meanwhile the political crisis drags on, slowly rotting the stats and its institutions away; at least we have a president. And this is what driving General Aoun (Hezbollah staunchest ally) even madder.

"I am proud to be part of the Wilayat el Fakih"

Nassrallah was very adamant in admitting that he was part of Iran's politico-religious hegemony, saying outloud that he was " proud to be part of the Wilayat el Fakih" But, he claimed that this same supreme authority wanted only the best for Lebanon and insisted on a multicultural and diverse country.

A simple question comes to mind... what would happen when this divine authority no longer desire a multicultural, democratic and free Lebanon? Nassrallah himself answered that question: he is first and foremost part of Iran's hegemony and he will follow it regardless of Lebanon's interests. Further evidences were abundantly witnessed in Beirut's street when Hezbollah went on a murderous rampage.

Meanwhile, the truce brokered in Doha seems to be holding. But the volcano that erupted two weeks ago is far from dead. Too many issues were left unresolved, and too much blood has been spilled. And most of all, it seems that Hezbollah has suffered its first military set back in years.

The Druze in Mount Lebanon fought Hezbollah militiamen to a stand still, inflicting heavy casualties (Nassrallah admitted 14 death, the toll is rumored to be much higher and includes two top ranking field officers...)

Everyday brings more tales of the fierce battles that raged in the mountains, when Hezbollah was forced to use artillery and mortars to fend off the fierce defense of Joumblatt's men and even Hezbollah own druze allies who refused to see their homes overrun by Nassrallah's militiamen.

In the mean time, despite all the venomous rhetoric, threats and accusations hurled at PM Siniora and all the pressure Nassrallah exerted, PM Siniora is back in office with a strong President holding the fragile peace together. And until further notice, Lebanon is a democracy and in such a system there is only one method of gaining political control...elections...

We have a new president!

May he be better than the last one...