Wednesday, May 09, 2007

An intresting article

The Arab Commission
By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN, The New York Times

Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, made a remarkable statement last week. He praised Israel for conducting an inquiry into last year’s war with Hezbollah — an inquiry that accused Prime Minister Ehud Olmert of “serious failure in exercising judgment, responsibility and prudence.”

Mr. Nasrallah was quoted by the BBC as saying Israelis “study their defeat in order to learn from it,” in contrast with the Arab regimes that “do not probe, do not ask, do not form inquiry commissions ... as if nothing has happened.”

One has to be impressed by his honesty, but he did not take it all the way, since the Arab leader who most needs to be probed is Mr. Nasrallah himself. He started the war with Israel, which was a disaster for both sides. If there were an honest Arab League Inquiry Commission into the war, here is what it would say about him:

On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah fighters directed by Mr. Nasrallah abducted two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others in an unprovoked attack across the Lebanon-Israel border, on the pretext of seeking a prisoner exchange. This triggered a war that killed about 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis. After interviewing all relevant parties, the Arab League Commission finds Mr. Nasrallah guilty of a serious failure of judgment, responsibility and prudence — for the following reasons.

1. Mr. Nasrallah demonstrated a total failure to anticipate Israel’s response to his raid. He assumed Israel would carry out the same limited retaliation it had with previous raids. Wrong. He failed to take into account the changed circumstances in Israel. The kidnapping of an Israeli soldier in Gaza a few weeks earlier, plus the fact that a new chief of staff of the Israeli Army, a new prime minister and a new defense minister had just taken office and all felt they were being tested, triggered an enormous Israeli response. Some 1,200 Lebanese died because of this gross error in judgment.

2. In unilaterally launching a war against Israel, without a vote of the Lebanese cabinet — of which Hezbollah is a member — the militia did grievous harm to Lebanon’s fragile democracy and democratization in the Arab world. All the fears that if you let an Islamist party into government it will not respect the rules of the game were fulfilled by Hezbollah.

3. Iran and Syria gave Hezbollah its rockets for their own deterrence. Hezbollah was their long arm to pressure Israel into political compromises and to threaten Israel if it attacked Iran or Syria. By launching all these rockets prematurely, without strategic purpose, Hezbollah has diminished its capability and Syria’s and Iran’s. The commission can’t find a single strategic gain from Mr. Nasrallah’s actions.

4. When the war started, Hezbollah’s fighters were sitting right on the border with Israel, operating freely. This was a real threat to Israel. As a result of the war, Hezbollah was pushed off the border by Israel and, in its place, the U.N. inserted a new peacekeeping force of some 10,000 troops, including a big European contingent, led by France and Italy. Yes, Hezbollah still has fighters in the area, but it has lost its military infrastructure, and can’t attack Israel now without getting embroiled with France and Italy — a huge strategic loss for Hezbollah.

5. Israel had allowed its ground forces to be degraded in order to invest more money in its air force’s ability to deter Iran and into policing the West Bank. Hezbollah’s attack exposed just how degraded Israel’s army had become. As a result, Israel has embarked on a broad upgrade of its military. In any future war Arab armies will meet a much better trained and equipped Israeli force.

6. Hezbollah claims that its Shiite militia, in attacking Israel, was serving the security needs of Lebanon. But Israel’s response to Hezbollah’s attack has resulted in billions of dollars of damage to Lebanese homes, factories and roads, with Shiite areas the worst hit and with zero security benefit to Lebanon.

Lebanon has had to rely on Arab and Iranian charity to rebuild. Israel, by contrast, suffered relatively minor damage and, after the war, its economy enjoyed one of its greatest growth spurts ever, as foreigners invested a record amount in Israel’s high-tech industry.

In sum, Mr. Nasrallah may have won popularity for himself and Hezbollah by fighting Israel. But so what? Today, less than a year after a war that Hezbollah called a “divine” victory, Lebanon is weaker and Israel is stronger. That’s what matters. And that is why, if the Hezbollah leader had any honor, he would resign.

21 comments :

Solomon2 said...

As I understand it, Hezbollah is not run by Nasrallah, but by a council that includes him and representatives from Iran and Syria. Is his statement an expression of self-criticism or a veiled rebuke directed towards his masters?

Unknown said...

it is ironic that we find ourselves interested in another mouthpiece of Bush's neo-cons propaganda and less in the fine analysts of Israeli policies and that of HezbAlla.

Anonymous said...

Hello,

Nobody in Israel is happy about this war and it does not matter what are the result of a war there are no winners.

Everyone here are sorry as well for the damage done and for the inisent people died on both sides, and its trully heart that so much damage has beed done on both sides.

as far as my personal opinion there are two main people to blame for this war:

1. Hasan Nasrala for starting this mass on the boarded that was much better since israel left Lebanon.

2.Ehud Olmert for over reacting this instead of trying to use Seniora to solve this before the attack.


A question to you is: Do you think that Seniora Fuad would have done something to remove hezbala from the boarded and bring the kidnapped soldiers back if Israel prime minister asked him at the time?

Anonymous said...

I have other question:
If you were Israel, the day HA kidnapped and killed the soldiers, what would you do?
Before answering I need to remind you:
1)You can't release the 3 Lebanese prosoners since it will encourge more kidnapping, and of course, releasing cruel murderers like Samir Quntar, is action against the victims.
2)Siniroa is powerless against HA. He didn't disarm it, and he doesn't want a civil war.
3)You have to make sure that kind of incident (such as killing/kidnapping) won't happen again.
4)HA fire missiles to your towns, from civil areas.
5)These missiles keep coming from Syria border.
Now, what is the best solution?

Anonymous said...

Even if Freidman is a “Neo-con Bush mouthpiece” as Golania claims, and acknowledging the occupation of the West bank must be addressed if Israel wishes to avoid the next war, does not contradict the fact the article’s analysis of last year’s war results is essentially accurate.

The article did neglect to mention that Olmert and Peretz are likely to lose their jobs and that too will probably benefit Israeli politics.

An ability to recognize one’s own faults and responsibilities, as well as demand accountability form the politicians is crucial not only for democracy but also makes the country stronger and “healthier”.
This is why Israel continues to prosper from one “divine defeat” to another.
Arab nations would be well advised to do the same – it will most certainly benefit them (and the whole region) at the (not too long) run.

BOB said...

last anonymous
You just said what i wanted to point out. Regardless of the author and his possible intentions and ideology his points and argument are very interesting and original. Anyways, I think that looking first and the author and dismissing what he is writing because of his personal ideology is pretty shallow.

Meir
As you know Lebanon and Israel are in an official state of war, Siniora cannot talk to Olmert and he cannot act upon his demands. The solution is through the UN or other third parties (US or EU) or of course in a comprehensive peace in the Middle East…

Anonymous
Hmm, I think I would have given a two weeks ultimatum for the return of the two soldiers and in that time I would have adequately prepared.

Anonymous said...

Bob,
Those would've been two weeks of ultimatum for nothing.
The truth is that HA can't let themselves being humiliated by returning back the soldiers as if nothing heppened.
Yes, it will show that you don't want war, but the surprise element would've been gone, and without it, things would've been much harder.
Also, in these two weeks you give time to Nasrallah to climb a tree of promisses such "HA will stay armed in south lebanon" and you know he can't let himself being humiliated for not keeping his promisses, which means - more bloodshed and less chances to a reasonable UN decision..
Don't get me wrong, I believe in peace and pray for it, and I think war is the worst solution. But, as much as I hate it, sometimes you really don't have any other solutions. It was a clear war of self-defence.

Anonymous said...

In Israel we feel that the reason for this war is HA and nothing else beside that, people here felt bad when Fuad Seniora talked on television asking from the world nations to stop this war.

However, I really intrested on what people in Lebanon feel about a group of people (HA) starting an army and declearing war on another country?

Also I wonder if people blame HA for this war or Israel and if there is anyone else by Nasrala that actually feel there any of the sides in this was can be titled as "Winners".

Anonymous said...

to Meir, you are sooooo far from the truth and reality, Lebanon and Israel are NOT in a state of War, I don't know what kind of history they teach you where you come from.
Lebanon has NEVER declared war on Israel, there is no peace agreement between the two countries, but they defenitly are not at war, there is a regional boycut decision from the countries in the region, THAT is NOT state of war, may be you feel that way but we in the south of Lebanon were mostly peaceful farmers,even after the 1980 we were always on the defensive side we only responded to the Israeli agression on our homes, lands and most importantly children, Lebaneese people did not start fighting back until early 1980 eventhough the Israeli agression started in the 1950 (not to be exact), I say it again, by nature the south lebanese guy is a farmer and a very peacefull individual, until you destroy his farms and ocupy his land and kill or imprison his children...
I would like to see what would you do if someone ocupies only your backyard, nevermind your whole town or the majority of your country...
also the distruction on both sides is not even comparable, While Israel's single rocket took out one whole building (15 stories) and drove it under ground, the HA's rockets were putting a whole in one room of one floor, and while Israel was bombarded with a total of 4000 rockets during the whole one month campain, Lebanon was receiving more than 4000 in one day, that's besides the cluster bombs that were leashed in the last few days of the war just to make sure kids and innocent people are harmed after the war stops and while the normal population tried to go back to their homes and normal lives.
I would like to stand face to face with any Lebanese person (that has one ounce of pride that is)and watch him or her tell me they would not fight back to take back all of their homes, lands and children that were forcefuly taken away from them. As a matter of fact I would like to do the same with anyone in the world, and watch them tell me "they would not fight back for all that or any of that".
my town was occupied for 21 years by Israel, six of my immidiate family were killed, we could not even perform any ceremony for them in my town, we had to put them to earth in other towns.
I do agree with you on one thing though, there was no winners in this war, and this is definitly not the way for building peace in the area.
I hope this gets published here...

Anonymous said...

To the anonymous that replied meir.
I don't think we are in a state of war with Lebanon, and I don't know why meir said so..
I don't know what they teach you there, but Israel never attacked in Lebanon without a clear self defence reason. From Lebanon (and Jordan.. and Syria.. and Egypt..) terrorists infiltrated to Israel and murdered civilians. Just like Samir Quntar, but I guess they don't tell you about what he and his gang did.
Israel is the one that fighting back!
The occupation was a result of a self-defence war, imposed on us by the terrorists. Look at the facts - we fully withdrew from Lebanon, and still HA attacked us.
HA used the homes that were destroyed. There were residential houses loaded with missiles. Children slept next to them. This is how the HA is acting.
We have every right to attack any place that is being used to kill us. HA is the one to blame for all the destruction. Not Israel.
Had they have the same capabilities as we have, HA would have cause much more destruction in Israel than the destruction in Lebanon.
First step to peace is denouncing violence, and recognizing each side's right to exist. That - HA don't want to do (Israel never questioned Lebanon's right to exist), and Lebanon can't restrain it.

Anonymous said...

Well, first I would like to thank you for caring so much about the education system around here.

second - I did not see an answer to my question about what the people in Lebanon feel about a group of people (HA) that are NOT the country army that start a war (since attacking is a way of declearing a war) without the government permission.

--------------------------------
Short international law lesson- there is ONLY two states between countries - peace and war and it does not matter if this is a cold war (not fighting) or active one.
--------------------------------

now regarding Israel coming into Lebanon and attack poor farmers.
As mentioned to you Israel came into Lebanon in first place after being attacked(NOT on 1950!!!) and stayed there in order to keep the security interests, but lets leave this fact.

if what you are saying is true then please explain me why south Lebanon army was fighting against HA along side with the Israeli army?

why would local farmers will assist the "foreign devil" to fight locals?

another question- why would HA attack after finally getting what they want a few years ago (Israel left Lebanon) and don't tell me that it to free prisoners because getting Ron Arad can be easier then attack an army that will attack back and do more damage.

also regarding comparing the weapons and fore usage- Do you really think that if HA had a more destructive missiles they would have keep them in order not to heart woman and her kids?


as far as I see it HA is the one that cause all the ruin in south Lebanon and Beirut by starting this war and triggering the IDF(Israel defense force).

I am not happy with it and I am TRULY and DEEPLY (not sarcastic at all) sorry for your family and for everyone on both sides who lost someone in this war.

I wish us all nothing but peace.

Meir

Unknown said...

Meir

first let me thank you for your sincere feelings now that i too feel sorry for the death of all innocent people in Isreal!

two
the issue of lebanon and Isreal state of war have been put into question. Let me clarify it: Lebanon aand sireal have been officialy in a state of suspened war since 1948. After the war broke out in 48 the two coutnries didi not signe peace but they had a cease fire agreement "Hudna" in arabic, kind of a susupension of hositilities if u want.

lastly you wanted to know how we feel about HA
well know that the answer of this question depends on which Lebanese you ask. If he is a follower of HA he will say that it is a brave resistance group that is fighting to reclaim Lebanon's land (sheebaa farms) and return our prisoners. He will say that HA did not start the war rather preempted an israli attack that was already planned. ( i m just stating what they say not endorsing their logic or argument)

as for me i say that HA attacked Israel in a blatant act of war across the international border without recent provocation. Israel reaction however was not very measured and destructive...

so in short i feel that HA dragged us into a destructive war that we did not want and wish not to wage ever again!!!!!

peace

Anonymous said...

Dear Bob and everyone else who post,

Thank you for a very good posts and the very good blog that bob is holding here.

doesn't matter where you from its nice to know that people still care and want a change.

I wish you all nothing but the best and I will sure be around to keep reading this great blog.

regards,
Meir

Anonymous said...

Bob,
I laughed out loud when I saw you published the article of Friedman
(You know the zionist who once said that building McDonalds will solve the Middle Easts problems! Ha Ha Ha!)
I also laughed to see that all the people leaving messages on your Blog are zionist and or israelis,
why don't you just switch your blog to Hebrew, Ha Ha Ha.
Yes the middle East needs a big change: the end to the racist zionist regime.

BOB said...

Sam

welcome back, lets hope this time you will remain decent and well behaved.

I am glad you laughed, it is very important to laugh from time to time...

now what i found strange is that you did not even discuss the articles points. you just brought up some old article without even providing the source.

as opposed to you i don't discriminate people, my blog is for everybody.
what is sad is that you accuse israel of being racist while you do the same and judge people just based on their nationality... who is the racist here?

BOB said...

sam

plz do explain the points you claim are inaccurate and with sources plz.

PS: Stick to the subject at hand, I do not want to reinstore moderation and stay decent and proper.

Anonymous said...

Bob,
The article you have is so filled with inaccuracies (and you know it) but if you are interested I can point them out to you.

An yes you are right I accuse the entity of being racist and dedicated to some sort of Nazi style supremasism based on race.
21/5/07 14:47

BOB said...

Sam

you repost that comment one more time and i will ban you!

Anonymous said...

Bob,
I won't need to post back the comment you deleted, because you just summed up and proved what I was trying to say in YOUR comment above.
Awesome!

BOB said...

sam

great i could be of help...
just know your limit, those opf decency and respect, and stick with them...

Anonymous said...

Thanks Bob,
Same for you!