The latest Arab League Summit ended and of course nothing changed and nothing was done, as always. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the latest period of time has ended his period of calm has just ended. The opposition will once more escalate its action to up the stakes. Of course the consequence of such an action will be fully blamed on 14 March… Meanwhile Lahoud was so happy to meet up with Bashar Assad that his grin almost split his face. Ahhh that much love can only be for the interests of Lebanon doesn’t it…
On the home front, a frigid stand still permeates the political arena. Some are waiting for the unfolding of the crisis between Iran and the west, other are waiting for the change in the west leadership to take place. They are all waiting, while the country is slowly emptying.
So all in all nothing new under the sun, a time to gather rocks around and a time to scatter them…
3 comments :
Bob,
Look on the bright side.
In previous times when HA would follow through on campaigns of violence and intimidation (covertly and overtly) at the behest of Iran and Syria knowing it had virtual carte blanche ability to do so since its two monetary masters were always in a position to turn up the heat if HA was ever strongly contested.
The current of the water seems to be seriously changing.
Six months ago it was all about the hostages seized by HA on behalf of Iran and now its Iran's seizure hostages flat out.
Not to mention the mountain of economic pressure being heaved upon Iran's economic and financial systems which means HA and Syria are no longer going to be seeing the windfalls of funding like they used to.
Being forced to spend more of your own money versus money given to you tends to make one more cautious and timid in terms of spending.
And sit ins, protests, payoffs, arms purchases, soldier pay, etc. has got to be expensive when you, yourself, have to foot the bill.
The other good news as far as waiting for "the change in the west leadership to take place." is that all three of the French candidates are talking tough vs. Iran, Brown, the UK's likely successor to Blair, is supposed to be less interested in foreign affairs, but the public outcry over the recent hostage crisis is likely to force him to take a stern line a la Tony Blair.
And counting on "the wise people" as Ahmadi Nezhad likes to refer to them as, the US Democrats are now pressing for a very strict implimentation of a bill designed to follow through with a previous anti-Iranian law that imposes heavy penalties and sanctions on foreign companies doing business with Iran (this has been a loop hole for some US companies that have used foreign businesses to continue doing oil drilling, goods imports, etc.):
http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/source/022364.html
I don't fully agree with the conclusion, since it would mean alienating countries like Russia and China that just now finally signed on to the anit-nuclear Iran side.
Here's a good article taht shows a way to continue the behind the scenes pressure without risking a breach of solidarity:
http://www.iranpressnews.com/english/source/022263.html
Anyways, it's obviously a lot of talk about Iran instead of Lebanon, but as always, those ill-wishers in Beirut are directly connected to "Terror, Inc." in Tehran. And what's bad for the corporate office, is always bad for Nasrallah's local franchise in Southern Lebanon and for Assad's franchise in Damascas.
There may be a third way out of this tense situation on the horizon.
The mullahs may be showing a few IQ points by considering removing Ahmadi Nezhad from power and replacing him with the far more liberal Khatami who is far less likely to be interested in supporting trouble in Lebanon through massive payments to HA, Syria, or Iraqi militias.
These means no chaotic and violent overthrow of the hardline mullahs that would kick off intercide tribal feuds between the majority Persians versus the Arabs, Kurds, Baluchi, Bahraini, Turkomen, etc. like what is taking place in Iraq and instead possibly lead to far greater normalcy of Iran to the point that it drops the revolution and allows human rights to finally take hold.
This potential change in the sails of Tehran along with Syria running out of oil for export next year (forcing them to form stronger commercial ties with the rest of the world) could lead to a permanent removal of the Syrian grip on Lebanon:
http://www.iran-press-service.com/ips/articles-2007/march-2007/ahmadi_revoked_30307.shtml
And then Iranians like this guy will finally come to power:
http://jadi.civiblog.org/
>>Meanwhile Lahoud was so happy to meet up with Bashar Assad that his grin almost split his face. Ahhh that much love can only be for the interests of Lebanon doesn’t it…
Yes it is. It is in Lebanon's interest to keep a Syrian leadership that made a strategic decision to focus on the Golan eights instead of Lebanon. That is their demand and notonly we hope it will stay that way, we support them in their rightful claim.
>Yes it is. It is in Lebanon's interest to keep a Syrian leadership that made a strategic decision to focus on the Golan eights instead of Lebanon.
It's a redundant argument, but the whole reason Israel took the Golan Heights originally is because of its geographic and topographic position which makes firing mortars, rockets, etc. into Israeli territory quite effective.
And it's the current Syrian leadership that is embarking on a overt/covert mission to reclaim Lebanon as a formal pawn once again through Lahoud, Aoun, HA, SSNP, whatever latest terror cell that's been busted for weapons smuggling into the country, etc.
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