Thursday, December 28, 2006

No way out!

Hezbollah and its allies are in a quandary. There is no way out of the dead-end, they lead Lebanon into. Nassrallah made the same mistake Israel did during the last war. He embarked on a war, promising unachievable goals and undermining his opposition!

I say war, because Nassrallah himself promised his supporters a victory, similar to the summer’s (sic) in their struggle with the government.

Nassrallah embarked on his power-grabbing crusade, after the UNIFIL and the Lebanese army pushed Hezbollah out of the south. The party of God turned on its fellow Lebanese and invested Down Town Beirut with its fighters.

Today, the same men who fought Israel during the summer are now deployed in the squares of Down Town Beirut, organizing, leading and policing the sit-ins (check out my previous blog on how Hezbollah impose its own order in Down Town)

However, they are stuck, rendered immobile and impotent, because invading the Saray (the government’s palace) proved to be impossible, and massive demonstration and constant rallies proved to be futile. With Nassrallah promise hanging over all his decision, there is no way out for Hezbollah, but to further escalate the situation.

Many commentators are alluding to Hezbollah’s next actions, like closing roads, blocking the airport and embarking on a campaign of civil disobedience. All dangerous and futile alternatives, which will only complicated the situation rather than solve it.

But amidst all this, a single fact may still play in Nassrallah’s favor, but not for long. He still has the total and undoubting obedience of his followers. So, in theory, he can convince his followers that any compromise he reaches is a victory. Just like what he did in the summer war against Israel.

However, this window is rapidly closing. His followers are becoming more and more disenchanted by half measures and compromises. I have heard several die-hard followers of Hezbollah confessing their intense disagreement with his temporizing and compromising stance, calling for more aggressive actions, like invading the Saray and to hell with consequences.

As I said earlier, everyday that passes makes it harder to reach a compromise. And everyday that passes without a solution bring us closer to the never-ending slide that awaits our small country…

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