Thursday, December 28, 2006
No way out!
Hezbollah and its allies are in a quandary. There is no way out of the dead-end, they lead Lebanon into. Nassrallah made the same mistake Israel did during the last war. He embarked on a war, promising unachievable goals and undermining his opposition!
I say war, because Nassrallah himself promised his supporters a victory, similar to the summer’s (sic) in their struggle with the government.
Nassrallah embarked on his power-grabbing crusade, after the UNIFIL and the Lebanese army pushed Hezbollah out of the south. The party of God turned on its fellow Lebanese and invested Down Town Beirut with its fighters.
Today, the same men who fought Israel during the summer are now deployed in the squares of Down Town Beirut, organizing, leading and policing the sit-ins (check out my previous blog on how Hezbollah impose its own order in Down Town)
However, they are stuck, rendered immobile and impotent, because invading the Saray (the government’s palace) proved to be impossible, and massive demonstration and constant rallies proved to be futile. With Nassrallah promise hanging over all his decision, there is no way out for Hezbollah, but to further escalate the situation.
Many commentators are alluding to Hezbollah’s next actions, like closing roads, blocking the airport and embarking on a campaign of civil disobedience. All dangerous and futile alternatives, which will only complicated the situation rather than solve it.
But amidst all this, a single fact may still play in Nassrallah’s favor, but not for long. He still has the total and undoubting obedience of his followers. So, in theory, he can convince his followers that any compromise he reaches is a victory. Just like what he did in the summer war against Israel.
However, this window is rapidly closing. His followers are becoming more and more disenchanted by half measures and compromises. I have heard several die-hard followers of Hezbollah confessing their intense disagreement with his temporizing and compromising stance, calling for more aggressive actions, like invading the Saray and to hell with consequences.
As I said earlier, everyday that passes makes it harder to reach a compromise. And everyday that passes without a solution bring us closer to the never-ending slide that awaits our small country…
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16 comments :
Great and deep analysis as always Bob. I especially like undoubting obedience of his followers. That is so true. They are all sheep, they just follow. They're almost like slaves man. They don't have a mind of their own. Not like us. We actually used our heads and realized that Hariri, Jumblat and Geagea are the way to salvation. It is a pity how hundreds of thousands of people can just be blindly fooled. Tsk.
Bob, have you followed a specific path to become so knowledgeable and wise when it comes to Lebanese politics? Are there any specific books you recommend I should read? Please advice when you have time.
Thank you and keep up the good work.
J.
We hate to hear that the situation it at a dead end is unclear.Closing roads and whatever else will have terrible consequences.Hope it will not get to this by some miracle.
Anyways,due to bad weather here we are loosing power a lot,so we decided to wish you an early Happy and Peacefull New Year just in case we are in the dark again.
Lookin forward to a brand new 07.
Peace out to you from us:
faisal,heba,kamal and noura
This is the hezbolla victory, they not realy victory they just say that they won the war, and all of them convince in that.
this is what happend in the summer war, they didn't won israel. they only said that they had won, while the media in israel criticized the army and the govermant, the world opinion stayed neutral about who win and who lost.
nobody can win them you know why?
they are not regular army, they only need to survive, but if you occupy their land, drive them away from the border, destroy all of their neighborhood, villages and bunkers, and killed how many that you can- you still lost. because some day you have to leave their land, and some day you have to stop the war- and they consider this to winning. they do not have to do this, they have no commitment to their people, and their supporter- they go after them like blinds.
they only need to survive and say to the media that they won the war.
but what I realy don't understand is why the Lebaneses help them in the victory theory, don't you know that this only make them look stronger??? why the arabs regime like jorden and egypt join to this victory festival, is this their interest? that nasrhalla will look like an hero?
no hezbolla and no israel won in this summer war, both of them lost a lot. but you with very stupidity help them to be strong enough to take control on your country while you fall into their honey trap, and because of the hate to israel and what it did to your country, celebrated the first vicroty on the zionist.
so now, in the next monthes, we will see who realy won, and who lost in this summer war. israel\lebanon or HEZBOLLA.
Good use of "(sic)". It had me thinking for a while why you used it in the first place, prompting me to actually look it up:
Abbreviation (Latin ‘thus’, ‘so’) to show that the original has been quoted accurately even though it contains an apparent error (‘she wrote threatening to charge me with assult and batery [sic] if I did not apologize’).
In the example, the error is a spelling mistake (assult, batery?). I guess it could be grammatical or otherwise. In Bob's analysis, it pertains to the error in Nasrallah's labellings of last summer's war a victory.
That aside, great analysis from Bob and as much as HA and the opposition might hate to admit it, but they are at a dead end. It's been a month on the protest... wu ba3dein? Any further action will be escalation with retaliatory responses (probably physical retaliation - like civil war) and any backing out is a defeat....
1- It is the Opposition that is organising the sit-in not Hezbollah and the number of people demonstrating proves that they represent a majority of the Lebanese people.
2- The talk of blocking roads and so forth is pure fantasy as they reiterated again and again that the protests will stay within the frame of the law
3- The opposition said from the beginning that they are ready to stay protesting for months if necessary there is no surprise
4- If they wanted Hezbollah can overrun the Saray in 2 minutes (it is not the barbed wire that will stop them trust me)
5- It is the government that is in a dead end, it can stay hanging in power but it is a fantom government that is not able to take or apply any of its decisions, just ink on paper.
Sam,
1- Let's say the Shiaa are 35% and Christians 30% of the population. Let's say HA has the support of 30% and Aoun 10% which is quite realistic (in fact quite optimistic for the opposition). The total of 40% is NOT a majority AND in Lebanon, a 50% majority in numbers (most of whom are Shiaa) will NOT constitute a majority in power and demand. That's how the country is setup and at the moment that's how it works. Anything that upsets this framework will lead to civil war. See Michael Young's article here
2- Talk of blocking roads - The protesters, lead by Hizbullah, blocked the airport road in the beginning of the protest period, and has erected fixed structures on private properties (the parking lots in Solidere), both of which are illegal (i.e. AGAINST the law)
3- The opposition said they'd stay protesting for months, but you can't speak on behalf of the protesters. Who knows how long they're willing to protest? They will analyse for themselves and see if this is going anywhere... and they won't continue putting their lives on hold just cos somebody tells them to do so (unless of course the allegations of payments being made are true - who knows?)
4- If Hizbullah storms the Saray, you'll get civil war. Simple as that. Initially, the Army and the ISF would try to stop that, so you won't have them on your side either. Later, of course, the army will break up as it did in the past.
5- True, the government is stalled, but the Head of Parliament and President (the other two powerful posts) are powerless (and both part of the opposition).
Sam, in Lebanon, your mentality will get you no where. If it represents the opposition's mentality, then they are sure to fail.
Sam,
1-The opposition is funded by HA(and its surrogates) which makes it organized by HA. And the number of people only proves how many people are more than happy to sit around, hold some signs, chant some slogans, etc. for a free meal, and other amenities.
Probably the reason they don't bat an eye to claims of crippling the downtown Beirut economy, since afterall, they seem to be gainfully employed.
2-Well, if blockading the streets and other law breaking acts are off the table, then it's the opposition's movement that will soon evaporate, not the other way around. With tension mounting over lack of results, if they don't "Go Big" they'll have to "Go Home."
3-They may have signed up for a months long campaign, but the accumulative isolation, body odor, and lack of privacy while watching those non-participating Lebanese going about their daily lives will soon soften their resolve.
4-HA can, in the physical sense, storm the capital, but that's the worst possible move, since people will forget all of the "zionist invader" rhetoric and only see just another crook out to make a power grab.
Nas's act of aggression would unite Lebanon against HIM. You need civilians on your side to make it a "Civil War." This unprovoked action would make it a one-sided route for March 14th, and HA knows it, otherwise they would've already made this move.
The purpose of the sit-in was to make March 14th flinch.
They didn't and now the stench of failure(the sit-ins own cumulative body odor) is now starting to set in on the opposition.
5-The government is really the one with the power to make a move and they have-None at all.
They knew the opposition/HA wanted the government to send in riot police to break up their gathering to provide that spark a civil war needed, but they didn't.
This same sit-in coup de tat was tried and failed in Mexico earlier this year by the opposition leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
He went from having enough popularity among the Mexican people to have just barely lost the presidential election.
He then set out to make himself president, despite losing the election, by holding mass sit-ins throughout Mexico City, disrupting traffic, government buildings, national holidays, and so on.
By the time President-Elect Calderon was sworn into office, Obrador, the opposition leader's popularity had plummeted to a mere fraction of his previous support.
Sinora and company may have paid attention to this example of government restraint and learned from it.
[And now to all March 14th supporters]
"Hezbolla and company tried and failed to overthrow the Lebanese government and all I got was this lousy t-shirt"
One of the tactics the Mexican government used was dispersion of the affected targets.
For example, the Mexican Independence holiday was normally held in one place, but protesters had already swarmed it days in advance to disrupt the ceremonies, so they simply moved the celebration to a different city temporarily.
The government still got to hold its holiday and Obrador got all the blame.
Is it possible to temporarily move parts of the affected businesses to different locations?
Could you not setup some small mini-mall type locations elsewhere in Beirut featuring some of the various products of the retailers, foods of the restaurants, etc. that have been de facto shut down by the sit-ins?
Might even be a big payday for the participating merchants: "Show your support for a free Lebanon by buying some shoes and getting a cup of coffee"
You might draw a counter offensive by the opposition who would then send a faction of its group to occupy the public property in front of these locations, but they would have to split their group into pieces weakening the size of their given force at any one location.
And even if they did this, just spread out to more locations to the point that they either stop picketing every single spot or they keep dispatching a small group to each store front which the merchant could take advantage of and turn into a tourist attraction.
Another merchant slogan: "Buy a hat and get your picture taken with a handfull of smelly protesters in the background"
This way every time from the opposition says: "the number of people demonstrating proves that they represent a majority of the Lebanese people.-sam said"
You can reply that: "The sales by the affected merchants say different!"
And then when the opposition finally packs up its bags and leaves for good, all the merchants can return to their original locations that they've since used as storage to have a big "Grand Reopening Celebration."
Every problem contains a solution, and dealing with this herd of sheep is no different.
To 9662
1- Let's say the Shiaa are 35% and Christians 30% of the population. Let's say HA has the support of 30% and Aoun 20% which is about the famous 70 percent of the vote he got in christian areas) add about one third of the druze and about 40 percent of he sunnis that voted against the hariri list in tripoli you reach about 70% of the population. This is a clear majority. But hey don't take my word for it let's let the people decide in a vote based on a fair electoral law not one designed by Syria and imposed by Feltman in a rush to put US puppets in power.
As for Michael Young I already said many times that he is paid by the CIA to put news in Lebanon exactly like Geoffrey Kemp and other americans who never set a foot in Lebanon, or the ones creating stories in Iraqi newspapers and TV stations directly financed in Washington.
2- Talk of blocking roads - The protesters, lead by Hizbullah, blocked the airport road in the beginning of the protest period and the party told these individuals to stop it right away and they did.
As for the parking lots they were used by every party in Lebanon so why single the opposition?
3- The opposition said they'd stay protesting for months, and betting the opposite is nothing but wishful thinking. The government that is going nowhhere on the other hand will finish by noticing it is going nowhere and will resign even if it is supported by Washington and other former colonial powers for the people will have the last word not foreign interference.
4- I never said that Hezbollah will storm the Saray, I was just responding to the phrase that they "can't do it". By the way the head of the army in Lebanon is the president not the prime minister so they are on Hezbollah side (I'm not even talking about the fact that it is constituted mostly of shiites which would lead that's true to its breakup).
5- True, the government is stalled, but the Head of Parliament and President (the other two powerful posts) are powerless (and both part of the opposition). That's true everything is blocked but that is a situation that is better than having the US dictate our internal and external policy, and that is the lesser of 2 evils.
9662, in Lebanon, your mentality will get you no where. Lebanon is not a country that can be governed by one faction sidelining whole chunks of the Lebanese society. If it represents the political majority's mentality, then they are sure to fail.
To Slavic Mike,
Since you are american why are you so interested with Lebanese politics? What you think will not change anything in Lebanon it is what the Lebanese think that matters.
You know your country is trapped in Irak and after spending 500 billion dollars they control it even less, they face a guerrilla resistance that already cleaned more than a hundred of your soldiers just for december, and reinforced Syria and Iran. Do you care for them? Do you really think the people of the Middle East are going to be submitted to your diktat and that of former colonial powers?
If so you are fooling yourself. From Palestine to Lebanon to Irak to Afghanistan to Iran to Syria people are resisting any attempt by the US and ex colonial powers to control them, colonial times are long gone just get over it!
to Slavic Mike
Please keep on writing on this blog and ignore any unpleasant remark .....even if u r american or from any other country i beleive this blog is for all nationalyties. I am lebanese i read Bob's blog everyday and i realy like your comments !!!!
Thanks for your intrest in our country and for your logical analysis.
Peace
LILY
Sam,
1 - 40% of the Sunni's against Hariri? 33% of the Druze? Come on... get real. Firstly, this does not reflect the election results, and secondly, Hizbullah's actions have galvanized both these sects so that any opposition from within now sides with the de facto leader - the Sunni street is unified as is the Druze.
Michael Young paid by the CIA?! Again, get real. It's called having a different view.
2- March 14th never had fixed structures and if they used parking lots, it was for a day not a month. Their presence was never over-bearing for local businesses or people of the area. In fact, they were probably supported by business owners in Solidere considering that the Solidere area is a predominantly a non-Shiaa Sunni area. You can't protest in someone else's backyard. Not for a month anyway.
3- etc etc.
4- The army would be forced to take a neutral role - i.e. keep law and order. They would have a duty to confront anyone seeking to storm the Saray as they would if anyone tried to storm and break into the presidential palace. Such duty doesn't require the President's authority. Remember, the Army was sent to the south (without the agreement of Lahoud).
5- Colonial powers?! So you don't consider Iranian and Syrian meddling foreign interference? If March 14 is so beholden to foreign support (which includes Arab states), how come they've torpedoed the Arab League initiative for the SECOND time?!
Come on Sam... Can't explain everything to you...
Slavic Mike,
You make an interesting comparison. Dunno if it fully applies in Lebanon though, but there are lots of parallels. If you haven't already done so, don't mind Sam. He gets like this every once in a while.
faisal,heba,kamal and noura
guys as always thx you very much and happy new year to you to. Hopefully i will see you all in Lebanon soon. A festive dinner made up of Lebanese cuisine and Mediterranean fish is waiting for you in my house!!! So hurry up!
Peace and do not worry anout power cuts, we have plenty of them in Lebanon :)
J
Thx you very much, but i feel that I do not deserve such praise.
About the books, you could start with is "a House of many mansion" it is a historic overview of modern lebanon.
It is a very intresting book that shed some light on the political and historical background of Lebanon.
Next you could also try "in the path of hezbollah" it is an objective and scholarly book on the inner working of hezbollah and their creed. very intresting too.
Both books are available through Amazon (you have a direct link to both books on the right side of my blog)
Sam
If one can only speak or be interested in thing he can affect or change than Newton shouldn’t have spoken about gravity and Einstein should not have even bothered by the universe and space time structure. Moreover, not scholars or journalist should even speak about international politics! Ridiculous!!!
And in this age of globalization the Lebanese are not the only affecting the destiny of their country. You have the UN, the global economy, and so on…
Frangieh and several other Hezbollah allies are the ones who spoke of blocking roads, so it is not a pure fantasy. Unless you believe that it only Hezbollah that are calling the shots, in what you call the opposition. And they are the ones who spoke about the protest accomplishing their goals before the holidays! Surprise! We are still here and we will never bow to threats or fear!
Your comment about Hezbollah invading the Saray in two minute is exactly why Hezbollah should give up their weapons. I totally refuse to have Lebanon’s government, its economy and welfare of its citizens at the mercy of a religious fanatic. I totally refuse this and I will always refuse (whether it is by Hezbollah or any other faction) the only wielder of force should be the army and the police, full point!
About colonialism, what can I say? It is of a older age, totaly unbelivable and whatever happens I do not think that any country wants or intends to colonize Lebanon but if they do you will find me and many others side by side fighting them…
Finally I believe Mike and 9962 aptly answered and refuted all your other points! So no need to repeat what they said!
Peace, justice and freedom :) and a happy new year to all
Thanks Bob!
To 9662,
1 - his point is easily verifiable by having free elections based on an electoral law all Lebanese agree on (not one written by Syria and imposed by the US)
I still think Michael Young is paid by the CIA and yes it is called having a different view.
2- I strongly encourage the people who support Siniora and Solidere to go spend their money in downtown (just in case the Hariri guys would loose too much money)
3- etc etc.
4- For this point I will say it differently: the opposition is not the one that would start a civil war.
5- To answer your question:
>>If March 14 is so beholden to
>>foreign support (which includes
>>Arab states), how come they've
>>torpedoed the Arab League
>>initiative for the SECOND time?!
Because the initiatives was not to solve the problem but to make this government gain some time (as if this was going to help it!) it is a massrahyyeh. Actually I ask you the question: if the problem was really the tribunal why didn't this government accept the proposal
(the opposition passes the tribunal and the political majority passes the unity government)?
Come on Sam... Can't explain everything to you...
Slavic Mike,
You make an interesting comparison. Dunno if it fully applies in Lebanon though, but there are lots of parallels. If you haven't already done so, don't mind Sam. He gets like this every once in a while.
British MP George Gallaway to Siniora:
لقد إعتدت على لقاء الزعماء العرب، الذين يخسرون الحروب ويدعون الإنتصار فيها، إنها المرة الأولى التي ألتقي بها بزعيم عربي، ينتصر في حرب ويدعي بأنه خسرها!!!"
--Look for additional comments by Slavic Mike on newer threads, I will no longer post comments under this subject--
It's difficult to keep track of arguments on multiple threads so I'm going to post comments/replies on the most recent ones.
Just trying to keep it all relevant and cohesive.
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