Out of touch

I haven’t posted in a long time for I am in Cyprus attending the International Institute for Mediation and Conflict Resolution (IIMCR) Symposium on the Middle East, in Nicosia Cyprus from the 18th of June till the 16th of July.

Until now it has been fantastic. I made many friends from all over the world, and we are having a lot of discussion and conversations on lots of issues ranging from the Israeli Palestinian conflict to the situation in Iraq and Iran nuclear ambitions.

Moreover the Academic part has been great so far. We had many interesting speakers, like Saeb Oreakat the chief Palestinian negotiator and many simulations of negotiation and mediation.

I will write a more comprehensive report on the IIMCR Symposium and my experience there, when I come back in mid July.

Here comes "Le General"

General Aoun has just accomplished a very rare feat in Lebanon's political life. He peacefully turned the tables on the power that is – the Joumblatt Hariri and Kornet Sehwan coalition.

Aoun swept all the seats in the first two constituencies of Mount Lebanon, toppling most of the other Christian figures. And he almost won an impossible victory in Baabda-alley, the third constituency, which is considered one of Walid Joumblatt private fiefdoms.

General Aoun has just entered the very exclusive club of Lebanese factions that control the Parliament (in addition to the Hariri, Jumblatt, Hizbullah and Nabih Berry’s bloc) and completely changed the Lebanese political arena.

One of the most striking changes due to Aoun's victory, is that no one will be able to outset Emile Lahoud, the current pro-Syrian President, from office after the election. Not even the once mighty Hariri-Joumblatt alliance.

For General Aoun has repeatedly declared that he will not accept the removal of the Maronite President. And now, after his victory, Aoun and his parliamentary bloc have the means to obstruct any parliamentary motion to remove the president from his office.

Another consequence is the sounding political defeat befallen Jumblatt and his ally Saad Hariri. The great majority they thought they will get (more than 80 MP) has evaporated. And their Christian allied faction (Kornet Shehwan) is now officially dead. They are now left with only with Nabih Berry and Hizbullah. And their prospects for a clear victory in the north are diminishing by the hour, especially after the reconciliation of Sleiman Frangieh and Omar Karame and their alliance with General Aoun.

General Aoun has accomplished in these elections what Bashir Gemayel did with political assassination. He has become the uncontested Christian political leader, with influence that transcends the many confessional barriers.

The General will lead a parliamentary bloc of around 20 to 25 deputies (depending on the last round of election). Most of them are young, university graduates and moderate Lebanese who did not participate in the civil war.

These new arrivals will hopefully introduce some greatly needed fresh blood in the Parliament, which could help with Lebanon's economic and political problems. Moreover General Aoun’s free patriotic movement is the only group of the four others that have a clear set and defined electoral program.

However, General Aoun’s victory allowed some of Syria’s staunchest allies to return to the Parliament. Like MPs Michel Murr and Sleiman Frangieh. A fact that might alienate many Lebanese, who consider Syria and its cronies as the source of most of their country’s problems.

Finally, General Aoun victory will profoundly change the political life in Lebanon. Although, some of these changes look very promising, the rest further assert the need for a radical overhaul of the Lebanese political elite and institutions.

In the end, the real consequences of this victory depend on Aoun’s future actions. If he sticks to his announced reform program and secular principles, then maybe his stormy entrance to the Parliament will herald the first steps of Lebanon's on the one thousand miles road towards democracy and prosperity. If not, then he will become just another corrupt politician in an ever-growing repertoire.

You call this an election?

With the unfolding of events, and the advent of the electoral law and alliances, I became very demoralized, which might explain the delays between my posts.

What made matter worse, was the assassination of the brilliant intellectual and the staunch Anti-Syrian journalist Samir Qassir. For, after the big protests of 14 March, I, and many others thought that our political situation will undergo a major overhaul, and Lebanon will start its long climb towards democracy. I was wrong.

Because, our “esteemed” politicians – and here I stress ALL, politicians – had others plans in mind. They decided to sell us short, for a few seats in the parliament.

The 2000 electoral law was used again. A law made and forced in by the Ghazi Kanan the former head of Syrian military intelligence – the "current" one, Rustem Ghazali, was booted out of Lebanon a few weeks ago- a gerrymandering law that makes sure that in each region a single faction will be able to controll all the seats.

And it came to be that the same four parliamentary blocs that controlled the parliament from 2000 to 2005, shall dominate the new one, with slightly changed proportions.

The four parliamentary blocs are: Nabih Berri's( a Shiite warlord, best know for his corruption), Hezbollah's, Walide Joumblatt's (a Druze warlord), and Hariri’s ( now headed by Saad Hariri, the son of the assassinated Prime Minister Rafic Hariri) see previous posts for more information about the assassination

Of course other groups and factions will be represented in the new parliament but their numbers will pale in comparison to the four big ones.

After all what happened from the death of Hariri to the great uprising of March the 14th, it seems that we are back to square two! Two not one! Because, we are no longer under the Syrian yoke, and that is quite an achievement, but we still have much more to do.

To be continued, with more on the electoral alliances and the composition of the new parliament…

An interesting book on Lebanon's history

With all the recent events I went back to my library to refresh my knowledge of Lebanon’s history. And believe me no book retells the historical background and explains why our country have been plagued by endless wars and conflict, better than Kamal Salibi’s "A House of many Mansions"

It is a very interesting and easy to read book. It is full of interesting insights and handles thorny issue with tact. Its title alone, “A House of many Mansions” explains the whole Lebanese quandary.

All in all, the book is very informative. It starts with the story of Lebanon from the WWI, when the Ottoman empire was crumbling, and recounts how Lebanon was created, and its early relation with its surrounding and the western world.

The most interesting parts in this book, is the explanations it gives about Lebanon’s problems. These explanations are so insightful, that for the most part they even shed light on today’s issues and offer a part of a solution. For example, the Author finds that one of Lebanon’s main problems is that the Lebanese have not yet agreed on which country they want: An Arab Lebanon or a fully Westernized Lebanon.

I recommend this book for all who are interested in Lebanon has been picked by the recent events and want to understand the historical background of the country.

Link for the book page on Amazon:

A House of many Mansions

Congratulations!

I want to congratulate all Lebanese and all freedom supporters everywhere, for the withdrawal of all Syrian troops from Lebanon.

This dream that seemed so far away just four month ago was made true so fast that I still can’t quite believe it!

Alas the price was, oh, so high. Rafic Hariri had to die for our dream to come true. So thank you Mr. Hariri where ever you are…

May Lebanon stay forever free.

What an awful time, an anticlimax is

The exuberance, the anger, the sadness and then the thrill of victory the pride in our new found unity of the first few weeks, just got muddled over time.

The president and those who still followed Syria’s orders had only one goal, to lose time, in order to postpone the election, by any means. For if the election were held on time it would be an overwhelming victory to the opposition.

Even though Omar Karamah was forced to resign by the pressure of the Lebanese who took to the streets, Syria could not accept its defeat. So in spite and in disregard of the Lebanese people will, they ordered their Lebanese collaborators to reinstate him. And reinstated he was.

Then the prime minister did as he was told, losing more than a month in a so called effort to form a new national unity government.

Meanwhile the country economic situation was getting even worse. Downtown Beirut was becoming a ghost town. And as if the situation was not bad enough, a series of explosion rocked the country.

Every four days of so an explosion went out in the middle of the night, in a Christian dominated area. The explosions targeted areas deserted at night. It was clear that the aim was to damage the economic life of these areas. In a way the Syrian president was holding true to the promise he made to the late Hariri.

Bashar al Assad, the Syrian president told Hariri in their last meeting, “I will go out of Lebanon, but rest assured that before I go I will burn it to the ground, like we did two decades ago…”

After five explosions this terror campaign stopped as suddenly as it began. No one was arrested. And the security appertus did not even pretend to make an investigation.

Why did the explosion stop, no one know. Maybe because the Christian did not rise to arms and attack the Muslims as a response to the bombs. Maybe because several civil groups from all over Lebanon raised funds to help pay the damages. Or maybe because those who planted these bombs achived their mysterious goals.

Finally, after a week or so since the last explosion – What a coincidence! - the PM seemed on the verge of finalizing his prolonged charade, and forming his government. The distribution of the ministries’ spoils went sour. Some found that the ministries they got, had no more money to be stolen! And they refused to head them.

Karameh resigned, for the second time. His orders to lose as much time as possible, perfectly executed. And a new Prime minister was chosen. A somehow neutral guy - with ties to both, the opposition and the Syria’s allies - was agreed upon. And Najib Mikati, our new PM formed his government in less than two days!!! A solution to Lebanon’s crisis seemed possible.

But, this perfect happy ending frightens me. I sense a trap. Or maybe I am getting too paranoid. There is no way to know. For, as the old saying goes; only time will tell.